49% — Will Jack Schlossberg be the Democratic nominee for NY-12
Kalshi 49% · 2 contracts · $11K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-15 19:52:58 UTC

Why this matters:
This market reflects the probability that Jack Schlossberg will win the Democratic primary for New York's 12th congressional district. At 33%, the market suggests Schlossberg is a competitive but not favored candidate in what is likely an open or contested race. The probability reflects expectations about his name recognition, fundraising capacity, and support among district voters compared to other potential candidates. Key drivers of movement would include primary field composition changes, polling data among registered Democrats in NY-12, endorsements from local party figures, and fundraising reports. The primary election date or filing deadline for NY-12 would be the critical event that determines whether this race materializes and begins to resolve the uncertainty around Schlossberg's actual viability as a nominee.

Key factors:
- New York's 12th district Democratic primary field composition and whether Schlossberg faces crowded opposition or limited challengers
- Public polling or survey data showing Schlossberg's name recognition and favorability among NY-12 Democratic primary voters
- Fundraising reports and campaign resources available to Schlossberg versus competing candidates in the district
- Endorsements from established Democratic figures, unions, or party organizations within New York's 12th district
- The filing deadline date for NY-12 primary candidates and any formal announcement of Schlossberg's candidacy

Contracts:
- Will Alex Bores be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?: Alex Bores — 35¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 74%)
- Will Micah Lasher be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?: Micah Lasher — 63¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 26%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-15T19:20:49.508Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "49% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ny12d
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jack%20Schlossberg%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20NY-12
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev