48% — Will Theo Chino-Tavarez be the Democratic nominee for NY-13
Kalshi 48% · 2 contracts · $236K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 00:20:19 UTC

Why this matters:
This market reflects a 50% probability that Theo Chino-Tavarez will be the Democratic nominee for New York's 13th congressional district. The outcome depends primarily on candidate entry decisions, primary voter preferences in the district, and endorsement patterns among Democratic leadership. Historically, open-seat races in this district have shown varying levels of competitiveness depending on the field size and candidate profiles. The district has leaned Democratic in recent elections, making the Democratic nomination a significant predictor of general election success. Key uncertainty centers on whether other potential candidates enter the race and how consolidated support becomes among the Democratic base. The primary election date and filing deadlines will serve as major resolution points for the underlying ambiguity about candidate participation and voter alignment.

Key factors:
- Current field composition and number of declared Democratic candidates competing for the nomination
- Endorsement patterns from established Democratic figures and organizations in NY-13
- Voting history and primary turnout trends among Democratic voters in this specific district
- Campaign funding and organizational capacity demonstrated by Chino-Tavarez versus competing candidates
- Filing deadlines and final candidate entry decisions that determine the ultimate primary contest structure

Contracts:
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic nominee for NY-13?: Darializa Avila Chevalier — 75¢ Kalshi $141K (weight 60%)
- Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic nominee for NY-13?: Adriano Espaillat — 21¢ Kalshi $96K (weight 40%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T01:20:51.401Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ny13d
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Theo%20Chino-Tavarez%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20NY-13
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev