49% — Will Julie Won be the Democratic nominee for NY-07
Kalshi 49% · 2 contracts · $228K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-28 23:09:58 UTC

Why this matters:
This 34% probability indicates that prediction market participants currently view Julie Won as the third-most likely candidate to secure the Democratic nomination for New York's 7th congressional district. The market is pricing in Claire Valdez as the frontrunner at 67%, with Antonio Reynoso at 28%. Won's positioning reflects assessments of candidate fundraising, endorsements, polling performance, and organizational capacity relative to her competitors. The probability could shift upward if Won gains major endorsements, demonstrates stronger fundraising, or polling shows improved name recognition or voter preference. Conversely, it could decline if competing candidates consolidate support or if Won faces organizational challenges. The nomination process timeline and any scheduled primary debates or campaign events will likely drive trading activity as more concrete information becomes available.

Key factors:
- Relative fundraising totals among the three candidates and whether Won has achieved parity with Valdez or Reynoso
- Endorsements from local party figures, union leaders, or other influential Democratic stakeholders in NY-07
- Polling data on voter preference and name recognition among Democratic primary voters in the district
- Candidate organization metrics including field staff, volunteer capacity, and voter contact operations
- Any scheduled primary debates, forums, or campaign events where candidates directly compete for voter attention

Contracts:
- Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?: Antonio Reynoso — 15¢ Kalshi $146K (weight 64%)
- Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?: Claire Valdez — 82¢ Kalshi $81K (weight 36%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T01:20:51.401Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "49% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ny7d
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Julie%20Won%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20NY-07
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev