94% — Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $3,800 Leader: Above $3,800 at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 8 contracts · $925 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 08:51:31 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: The market assigns a 93% probability that New York City's median asking rent will exceed $3,800 in December 2026, reflecting strong confidence in continued rent elevation. This assessment is grounded in recent rental trends showing sustained upward pressure across Manhattan and outer boroughs, though the declining probabilities for higher thresholds ($3,900 at 84%, $4,000 at 56%) suggest meaningful uncertainty about how much further rents will rise. The outcome depends primarily on housing supply dynamics—whether new construction moderates vacancy rates—and demand factors including migration patterns and employment growth in finance and tech sectors. December 2026 data from appraisal firms like StreetEasy and Zillow, typically released in early 2027, will definitively resolve this question. Current low trading volume indicates limited recent position changes among market participants. Key factors: - NYC median asking rent reached approximately $3,600–$3,700 as of mid-2026; a $100–$200 additional increase over 4 months is required to hit $3,800 - New housing completions in NYC and vacancy rate changes will directly affect supply-side pressure on rents - Employment growth or contraction in high-wage sectors and migration inflows/outflows over Q3–Q4 2026 will shape tenant demand - The probability ladder shows material doubt above $3,800: $3,900 drops to 84%, and $4,000 to 56%, indicating consensus expects modest but not dramatic further growth - December rent data from StreetEasy, Zillow, or similar sources—the official resolution mechanism—will be published in early 2027 Contracts: - Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $3,800?: Above $3,800 — 94¢ Kalshi $825 (weight 89%) - Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $3,900?: Above $3,900 — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $4,000?: Above $4,000 — 41¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 11%) - Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $4,100?: Above $4,100 — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $4,200?: Above $4,200 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $4,300?: Above $4,300 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $4,400?: Above $4,400 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $4,500?: Above $4,500 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T08:20:51.961Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nycaskrent Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20New%20York%20City%E2%80%99s%20median%20asking%20rent%20for%20December%202026%20be%20above%20%243%2C800 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev