28% — How many billionaires will New York City lose this year
Leader: At least 3 at 28% · Kalshi 28% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-28 04:15:29 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 53% probability that New York City will experience a net loss of billionaires during 2026. The outcome depends primarily on wealth fluctuations driven by stock market performance, business valuations, and major M&A activity involving NYC-based billionaire-led companies. Secondary factors include relocation decisions by high-net-worth individuals and changes in net worth calculations as of year-end. The market will resolve based on billionaire roster counts from tracking organizations like Forbes, typically published in early 2027. Current uncertainty reflects volatility in tech stocks and real estate values, which significantly impact NYC billionaire wealth.

Key factors:
- Stock market performance for major NYSE-listed companies owned by NYC billionaires will directly affect whether threshold wealth levels are maintained or crossed
- Corporate acquisition or IPO activity in 2026 could rapidly change billionaire status for founders or majority shareholders
- Real estate valuations and commercial property market conditions impact billionaire net worth calculations, particularly relevant for NYC-based real estate moguls
- Relocation patterns of high-net-worth individuals to other states may reduce NYC's billionaire count independent of wealth changes
- Forbes or similar tracking organizations' methodology and timing for year-end billionaire list publication will determine the resolution baseline

Contracts:
- How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?: At least 3 — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?: At least 8 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?: At least 13 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?: At least 23 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-28T03:20:49.429Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "28% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nycbillionaires
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20billionaires%20will%20New%20York%20City%20lose%20this%20year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev