91% — Will New York City rent grow above 5% in December 2026
Leader: Above 0% at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 8 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:37 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This prediction estimates a 91% chance that New York City rent will rise more than 5% during 2026, as measured through December. Such a significant increase would represent accelerated growth compared to recent trends. The high probability reflects expectations that demand pressure and limited supply will continue supporting rental increases. Key drivers pushing this outcome include sustained employment growth in the city and persistent housing constraints. The main uncertainty centers on whether macroeconomic conditions—particularly interest rates and recession risk—might dampen demand enough to cool rent growth below the 5% threshold. Resolution will depend on year-end rental data from major tracking services like StreetEasy or CoStar, typically released in early January 2027.

Key factors:
- Average NYC rent declined approximately 0.5-2% annually from 2022-2024; a 5%+ increase in 2026 would mark a reversal requiring sustained demand acceleration
- Current Manhattan and Brooklyn vacancy rates and average effective rents as of May 2026 compared to historical trends indicate whether the market trajectory supports above-5% year-over-year growth
- Federal Reserve interest rate policy and economic growth projections through December 2026 affect both tenant demand and new housing supply responsiveness
- Major employment changes in finance, tech, and professional services sectors (NYC's largest industries) directly influence renter purchasing power and demand
- Year-end 2026 rental data releases from commercial tracking firms will serve as the definitive resolution source, typically arriving in early January 2027

Contracts:
- Will New York City rent grow above 0% in December 2026?: Above 0% — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will New York City rent grow above 1% in December 2026?: Above 1% — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will New York City rent grow above 2% in December 2026?: Above 2% — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will New York City rent grow above 3% in December 2026?: Above 3% — 74¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will New York City rent grow above 4% in December 2026?: Above 4% — 66¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will New York City rent grow above 5% in December 2026?: Above 5% — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will New York City rent grow above 6% in December 2026?: Above 6% — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will New York City rent grow above 7% in December 2026?: Above 7% — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)

Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nycrentsy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20New%20York%20City%20rent%20grow%20above%205%25%20in%20December%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev