14% — Will the NYC Department of Homeless Services’ average length of stay for single adults in shelter in the full-fiscal Mayor’s Management Report be above 350 days for Fiscal Year 2027 (July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027) Kalshi 14% · 18 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-25 06:31:14 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the likelihood that New York City's shelter system will report an average length of stay exceeding 350 days for single adults during fiscal year 2027 in its official Mayor's Management Report. The 56% reading suggests near even odds. Length of stay depends primarily on housing placement rates and shelter intake volumes—faster placements to permanent housing or supportive units would reduce average stay, while continued high demand and limited exits would extend it. The resolution will depend on data published in the Mayor's Management Report, typically released in fall 2027, which will contain the official FY2027 metric. Key pressures include New York City's ongoing housing shortage, shelter system capacity constraints, and the pace of permanent housing placements through various municipal programs. Key factors: - NYC Department of Homeless Services' single adult shelter census size and trend through FY2027, as reported in monthly management reports - Monthly housing placement rate for single adults exiting shelter into permanent housing or supportive housing programs - Total annual shelter intakes for single adults during the fiscal year period, indicating whether demand remains elevated - Average length of stay trend as of spring 2027 and whether it is tracking above or below 350 days, which would signal likely final outcome - Changes in policy, funding, or program capacity affecting either shelter intake prevention or exit placement velocity during the fiscal year Contracts: - Will the citywide number of 2-K seats New York City makes available for placement, counting each seat once across all program settings and schedules be above 10000 upon completion of the initial 2-K offer release for the 2027–28 school year?: Above 10,000 — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will the citywide number of 2-K seats New York City makes available for placement, counting each seat once across all program settings and schedules be above 12000 upon completion of the initial 2-K offer release for the 2027–28 school year?: Above 12,000 — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will the citywide number of 2-K seats New York City makes available for placement, counting each seat once across all program settings and schedules be above 14000 upon completion of the initial 2-K offer release for the 2027–28 school year?: Above 14,000 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will the citywide number of 2-K seats New York City makes available for placement, counting each seat once across all program settings and schedules be above 4000 upon completion of the initial 2-K offer release for the 2027–28 school year?: Above 4,000 — 75¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will the citywide number of 2-K seats New York City makes available for placement, counting each seat once across all program settings and schedules be above 6000 upon completion of the initial 2-K offer release for the 2027–28 school year?: Above 6,000 — 53¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will the citywide number of 2-K seats New York City makes available for placement, counting each seat once across all program settings and schedules be above 8000 upon completion of the initial 2-K offer release for the 2027–28 school year?: Above 8,000 — 39¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8 mph for December 2026?: At least 8 mph — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.1 mph for December 2026?: At least 8.1 mph — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-25T06:20:49.407Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nycstat Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20NYC%20Department%20of%20Homeless%20Services%E2%80%99%20average%20length%20of%20stay%20for%20single%20adults%20in%20shelter%20in%20the%20full-fiscal%20Mayor%E2%80%99s%20Management%20Report%20be%20above%20350%20days%20for%20Fiscal%20Year%202027%20(July%201%2C%202026%20through%20June%2030%2C%202027) Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev