95% — Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 8.6 million TEUs
Leader: Above 8.4 million TEUs at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 8 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:12 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market participants' assessment that the Port of New York and New Jersey will handle above 8.6 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) in 2026. The current 74% probability suggests broad confidence in reaching this threshold, which represents steady container traffic at or slightly above recent operational levels. The main drivers of this view are (1) baseline demand from East Coast imports and regional trade patterns, and (2) the port's operational capacity and labor agreements following recent labor negotiations. The resolution depends on final 2026 container volumes, typically reported in early 2027. Key uncertainty around more aggressive thresholds—only 37% above 8.8 million TEUs—indicates skepticism about exceptional growth. Downward pressure could come from macroeconomic contraction, shifts in supply chains away from East Coast ports, or operational disruptions. Upward pressure would require sustained or growing import demand throughout 2026.

Key factors:
- East Coast container import demand trends through 2026, particularly from consumer goods and industrial supply chains
- Port labor availability and strike-related disruptions following the 2024-2025 labor agreement negotiations
- Competitive dynamics with other U.S. ports (Charleston, Savannah, Los Angeles) affecting cargo routing decisions
- The difference between the 8.6M and 8.8M probabilities (74% vs. 37%) indicates market skepticism about volume growth beyond modest baselines
- Historical 2025 throughput figures and stated operator capacity utilization rates heading into year-end

Contracts:
- Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 8.4 million TEUs?: Above 8.4 million TEUs — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 8.5 million TEUs?: Above 8.5 million TEUs — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 8.6 million TEUs?: Above 8.6 million TEUs — 81¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 33%)
- Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 8.7 million TEUs?: Above 8.7 million TEUs — 70¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 63%)
- Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 8.8 million TEUs?: Above 8.8 million TEUs — 50¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 0%)
- Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 8.9 million TEUs?: Above 8.9 million TEUs — 40¢ Kalshi $94 (weight 2%)
- Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 9.0 million TEUs?: Above 9.0 million TEUs — 25¢ Kalshi $59 (weight 1%)
- Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 9.1 million TEUs?: Above 9.1 million TEUs — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.197Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nynjportteu
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Port%20of%20New%20York%20and%20New%20Jersey%20total%20TEUs%20handled%20in%202026%20be%20above%208.6%20million%20TEUs
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev