16% — Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01
Kalshi 16% · 1 contracts · $20 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 23:42:12 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Christopher Gallant will win the Democratic primary to represent New York's 1st Congressional District. The current 43% assessment indicates a competitive but uncertain race, with Lukas Ventouras priced at 28% as the second candidate. Key drivers of this probability include candidate funding, endorsements from local Democratic Party figures, and primary turnout patterns in eastern Long Island. The primary election date and subsequent vote totals will ultimately resolve this contract, providing definitive evidence of which candidate secured the Democratic nomination. The market prices in meaningful uncertainty, suggesting no single candidate has consolidated overwhelming support among Democratic voters in the district. Recent polling, candidate fundraising reports, and grassroots organization strength would significantly influence these probabilities closer to the election.

Key factors:
- Christopher Gallant's fundraising total and cash-on-hand position relative to primary opponents
- Endorsement pattern from established Democratic officials and organizations in NY-01
- Primary election turnout in NY-01 relative to historical averages, which affects which voter segment determines the outcome
- Polling data on candidate favorability and name recognition among registered Democrats in the district
- Campaign infrastructure and volunteer organization metrics in key precincts

Contracts:
- Will Diana K Kastenbaum be the Democratic nominee for NY-24?: Diana K Kastenbaum — 16¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T01:20:51.401Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nyprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Christopher%20Gallant%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20NY-01
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev