37% — Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026
Leader: Chevalier and Bores lose at 37% · Kalshi 37% · 4 contracts · $87 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-24 09:29:17 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the chance that Democrat Darializa Avila Chevalier wins the NY-13 primary while simultaneously Alex Bores loses the NY-12 primary in September 2026. The current 37% reading suggests this combined outcome is possible but unlikely. The pricing likely reflects uncertainty about both candidates' fundraising, endorsements, and name recognition relative to their opponents in these adjacent New York districts. The September 2026 primary election itself is the key event that will resolve all uncertainty. Shifts in this probability would typically follow major campaign developments, polling releases if conducted, or endorsements from notable figures in either district. The combination requirement makes this less probable than either outcome independently, since both conditions must be met simultaneously.

Key factors:
- Primary election date is scheduled for September 2026; no earlier resolution mechanism exists
- NY-13 and NY-12 are distinct races with separate electorates, so outcomes are not perfectly correlated but may share regional political trends
- Avila Chevalier's performance depends on her relative position among NY-13 Democratic candidates; Bores' defeat requires a competing candidate to accumulate more votes
- Campaign spending, endorsement patterns, and voter contact intensity between now and September will materially affect candidate viability
- Both seats' Democratic primary electorate composition and turnout assumptions significantly impact the probability of this specific two-outcome combination

Contracts:
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026?: Chevalier and Bores lose — 37¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 23%)
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be victorious in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026?: Chevalier and Bores win — 17¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 6%)
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026?: Chevalier wins, Bores loses — 11¢ Kalshi $34 (weight 39%)
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be victorious in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026?: Chevalier loses, Bores wins — 3¢ Kalshi $28 (weight 32%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-24T04:20:51.181Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nyprimarycombo
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Darializa%20Avila%20Chevalier%20be%20victorious%20in%20the%20NY-13%20Democratic%20primary%20AND%20Alex%20Bores%20be%20defeated%20in%20the%20NY-12%20Democratic%20primary%20for%20Sep%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev