50% — NZ Election
Leader: National Party # of seats?: 30-34 at 50% · Polymarket 50% · 20 contracts · $35 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:48:14 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents a market assessment that the National Party will win 35–39 seats in the upcoming New Zealand election, with a 50% implied probability for this specific outcome band. The current odds reflect uncertainty about whether National will form a majority coalition, as the runner-up outcome sits at 45%. Market pricing across related contracts suggests traders expect a close result, with material probability also assigned to National underperforming (30–34 seats at 38¢) and Labour performing better than baseline (45–49 seats at 47¢). The next scheduled election date will determine the final seat count; polling trends, campaign momentum, and coalition arithmetic leading into that vote would shift probabilities. The tight clustering of prices across multiple outcomes indicates limited consensus on the exact composition of Parliament rather than high confidence in any single scenario.

Key factors:
- National Party seat forecasting from recent public polls and their trend trajectory
- Labour Party performance relative to expectations, particularly in the 45–49 seat range valued at 47¢
- Viability and likelihood of coalition partners available to either major party to reach or exceed 61 seats for a working majority
- Margin of victory in party list vote share, with National 10%+ margin priced at 40¢ suggesting material downside scenarios
- Scheduled election date and any campaign events or economic data releases that could shift voter preference before voting occurs

Contracts:
- NZ Election: National Party # of seats?: 30-34 — 50¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 14%)
- NZ Election: National Party # of seats?: 35-39 — 49¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 14%)
- NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?: 35-39 — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?: 45-49 — 47¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- NZ Election: National Party # of seats?: 25-29 — 45¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 14%)
- NZ Election: National Party # of seats?: 40-44 — 44¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 14%)
- NZ Election: National Party # of seats?: 50+ — 42¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 14%)
- NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?: 30-34 — 42¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.266Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nz-election
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=NZ%20Election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev