13% — What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce Leader: Clip-on device for clothing at 13% · Kalshi 13% · 8 contracts · $20 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-11 11:11:58 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are currently pricing a 15% probability that Jony Ive and OpenAI will announce earbuds or headphones as their collaborative hardware device. This represents a narrow lead over a clip-on wearable option at 14%, with other form factors like glasses, necklaces, and computers at lower odds. The probability reflects uncertainty about both whether an announcement will occur and, if it does, which physical form the device will take. Key drivers of the current level include the lack of confirmed announcement dates or official product roadmap details from either company, and general market skepticism about near-term consumer hardware from the partnership. Resolution depends on whether either organization issues a public announcement specifying the device category. Trading volume is concentrated in the earbuds contract, suggesting this outcome has more conviction among active traders, while other options show minimal recent activity. Key factors: - No official announcement date or timeline has been publicly confirmed by OpenAI or Jony Ive's design firm as of August 2026 - Earbuds/headphones lead competing form factors by only 1 percentage point, indicating genuine market uncertainty rather than consensus - The top contract shows $133 in 24-hour volume while runner-up contracts show zero recent trading, suggesting the earbuds lead may reflect thin liquidity rather than strong conviction - Historical precedent: Ive's previous Apple projects (AirPods, HomePod) were audio-focused, which could anchor traders toward audio device expectations - The category includes seven separate contracts with meaningful probability mass distributed across glasses (5%), necklaces (8%), and clip-ons (14%), indicating traders view multiple technical approaches as plausible Contracts: - What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?: Clip-on device for clothing — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?: Earbuds/Headphones — 12¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 100%) - What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?: Ring — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?: Necklace — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?: Glasses — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?: Computer — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?: Phone — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?: Watch — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-11T10:20:50.645Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oaihardware Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20kind%20of%20device%20will%20Jony%20Ive%20and%20OpenAI%20announce Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev