84% — Will Barack Obama endorse Graham Platner in Maine Senate before Nov 3, 2026
Leader: Jon Ossoff at 84% · Kalshi 84% · 7 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-29 23:40:08 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract measures the probability that former President Barack Obama will publicly endorse Graham Platner in Maine's 2026 Senate race before November 3. At 76%, the market reflects strong expectation of an endorsement, placing this outcome ahead of several other potential Obama endorsements in competitive Senate and gubernatorial races. The probability is driven by Platner's political profile, the competitiveness of Maine's Senate race, and Obama's historical pattern of endorsing candidates in key contests. The main resolution catalyst is the general election campaign period and any public statements from Obama or his representatives between now and early November 2026. Factors that could shift the probability include changes in the race's competitiveness, shifts in Democratic party strategy, or statements from Obama regarding his endorsement plans for 2026.

Key factors:
- Obama's historical endorsement patterns in Maine politics and competitive Senate races
- Platner's status as a declared candidate and perceived viability heading into the final stretch of the campaign
- Competitive dynamics in Maine's Senate race and whether it becomes a targeted priority for national Democratic figures
- Public statements or signals from Obama's team about planned 2026 endorsements before the November deadline
- Relative endorsement volume across the related contracts (Dan Osborn at 61¢, Jon Ossoff at 76¢) suggesting market differentiation based on candidate profile or race dynamics

Contracts:
- Will Barack Obama endorse Jon Ossoff in Georgia Senate before Nov 3, 2026?: Jon Ossoff — 84¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Barack Obama endorse Dan Osborn in Nebraska Senate before Nov 3, 2026?: Dan Osborn — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Barack Obama endorse Roy Cooper in North Carolina Senate before Nov 3, 2026?: Roy Cooper — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Barack Obama endorse Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia Governor before Nov 3, 2026?: Keisha Lance Bottoms — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Barack Obama endorse Karen Bass in Los Angeles Mayor before Nov 3, 2026?: Karen Bass — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Barack Obama endorse Mary Peltola in Alaska Senate before Nov 3, 2026?: Mary Peltola — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Barack Obama endorse Sherrod Brown in Ohio Senate before Nov 3, 2026?: Sherrod Brown — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:10.143Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/obamaendorse
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Barack%20Obama%20endorse%20Graham%20Platner%20in%20Maine%20Senate%20before%20Nov%203%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev