51% — # of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?: 3
Leader: 3 at 51% · Polymarket 51% · 4 contracts · $32 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:58 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract tracks whether South Korea's ruling Democratic Party (PPP) will win exactly 3 seats in upcoming by-elections. At 41%, the market suggests this outcome is neither favored nor unlikely, with traders roughly split between this scenario and alternatives like winning 0, 1, 5, or more seats. The PPP's seat count depends on voter turnout patterns, regional sentiment toward the current administration, and how effectively opposition parties mobilize support. The Democratic Party of Korea (DP) is heavily favored at 97 cents to win the most seats overall, suggesting a challenging environment for the ruling party. Resolution will occur once by-election results are officially certified, making the actual vote share and district-level performance the decisive factors in determining PPP's final seat count.

Key factors:
- Democratic Party of Korea (DP) heavily favored to win most seats overall (97¢), indicating headwinds for PPP performance
- PPP's exact seat count depends on vote distribution across multiple districts rather than overall vote share, creating outcome uncertainty
- Runner-up outcome priced identically at 41%, indicating market participants lack conviction about the 3-seat scenario versus competing alternatives
- Current market structure shows fragmented probabilities across multiple seat-count outcomes (0, 1, 3, 5), reflecting genuine uncertainty about PPP performance
- By-election timing and voter turnout in specific regions will mechanically determine which parties gain which seats

Contracts:
- # of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?: 3 — 51¢ Polymarket $32 (weight 100%)
- # of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?: 2 — 38¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- # of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?: 1 — 9¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- # of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?: 4 — 8¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/of-seats-won-ppp-south-korea-elections
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=%23%20of%20seats%20won%20by%20PPP%20in%20South%20Korea%20by-elections%3F%3A%203
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev