62% — WTI Oil Price Leader: $73 or above at 62% · Kalshi 62% · 20 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-23 23:38:52 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are pricing a 93% probability that WTI crude oil will settle above $71.99/barrel on June 22, 2026—two days from now. This high confidence reflects the narrow time window: with only 48 hours until settlement, price discovery is constrained by immediate supply-demand conditions and overnight trading activity rather than longer-term fundamentals. The probability's strength suggests traders expect the oil price to remain in a relatively stable range rather than experience a sharp selloff. The main downside risks would be unexpected inventory builds, demand-destruction signals, or geopolitical de-escalation. Upside catalysts would include supply disruptions or demand surprises. Since the settlement occurs in 2 days, the outcome depends primarily on the June 21-22 commodity market close and any economic data or policy announcements released in that window. Key factors: - The 93% probability reflects a very short settlement window (2 days), limiting exposure to major new information and anchoring price to current market levels - High-volume contracts at $75.99 and $76.99 show most trader conviction in the $76+ range, while the $82.99 contract trades at only 7 cents, indicating low probability of sharp upside moves - Kalshi's multi-outcome structure means this reflects relative confidence in the $71.99 band specifically versus lower thresholds, not an outright directional bet - Overnight crude trading and any DOE inventory report released before June 22 settlement would be the primary catalysts for meaningful repricing - The 48-hour timeframe essentially freezes longer-term supply and geopolitical factors out of the pricing equation Contracts: - Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >72.99 on Nov 3, 2026?: $73 or above — 62¢ Kalshi $506 (weight 7%) - Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >81.99 on Nov 3, 2026?: $82 or above — 56¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 16%) - Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >76.99 on Nov 3, 2026?: $77 or above — 56¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 1%) - Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >79.99 on Nov 3, 2026?: $80 or above — 56¢ Kalshi $43 (weight 1%) - Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >86.99 on Nov 3, 2026?: $87 or above — 55¢ Kalshi $838 (weight 11%) - Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >77.99 on Nov 3, 2026?: $78 or above — 54¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 1%) - Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >84.99 on Nov 3, 2026?: $85 or above — 51¢ Kalshi $421 (weight 6%) - Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >85.99 on Nov 3, 2026?: $86 or above — 51¢ Kalshi $253 (weight 3%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-23T23:20:50.312Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "62% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oil-price-wti Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=WTI%20Oil%20Price Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev