97% — WTI Oil Price
Leader: Above $85.99 at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 20 contracts · $41K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 9, 2026?: Above $85.99 — 97¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%)
- Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 86.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 9, 2026?: Above $86.99 — 96¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 3%)
- Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 87.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 9, 2026?: Above $87.99 — 95¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 3%)
- Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 88.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 9, 2026?: Above $88.99 — 92¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 6%)
- Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 9, 2026?: Above $89.99 — 87¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 10%)
- Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 9, 2026?: Above $90.99 — 82¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 7%)
- Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 9, 2026?: Above $91.99 — 75¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 7%)
- Will the WTI front-month settle oil price  be >72.99 on Nov 3, 2026?: $73 or above — 67¢ Kalshi $312 (weight 1%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:07.718Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oil-price-wti
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=WTI%20Oil%20Price
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev