91% — How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year Leader: At least 370 at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 7 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 15:18:40 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract estimates the probability that US oil rig counts will reach a specific threshold by December 31, 2026. The 90% probability reflects market confidence that rig deployment will remain within or exceed expected levels, supported by current drilling activity and industry capacity forecasts. The main drivers are crude oil prices (which incentivize or discourage drilling investment) and natural gas pricing, which affects rig utilization rates. Economic demand signals, Federal Reserve policy, and quarterly earnings reports from major drilling contractors will provide the clearest indicators of whether rig counts track toward the forecast level. The specific resolution date is December 31, 2026, when the actual rig count will be officially published by industry tracking services. Key factors: - Current West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude price relative to breakeven drilling costs (~$55-65/barrel threshold); sustained prices below this level historically reduce rig count growth - US natural gas price trends and production dynamics, which determine whether gas-focused drilling remains economically viable versus oil drilling - Quarterly rig count data from Baker Hughes published each Friday; consistent month-over-month trends would validate or challenge the forecasted trajectory - Capital expenditure announcements and guidance from major drilling contractors (EOG, Diamondback, Pioneer) during earnings calls; management commentary directly signals near-term rig deployment plans - Federal regulatory changes affecting drilling permits on federal lands or offshore zones; policy shifts could materially alter deployment rates in specific regions Contracts: - How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?: At least 370 — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?: At least 380 — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?: At least 390 — 84¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?: At least 400 — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?: At least 410 — 74¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?: At least 420 — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?: At least 430 — 59¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T14:20:49.198Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oilrigs Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20oil%20rigs%20will%20the%20US%20have%20at%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev