71% — OK-01 Republican Primary Winner
Leader: Jackson Lahmeyer at 71% · Polymarket 71% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-29 23:37:23 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Jackson Lahmeyer will win the Oklahoma 1st Congressional District Republican primary. At 60%, the market views him as the frontrunner but not a heavy favorite, indicating meaningful uncertainty about the nomination outcome. The primary outcome will depend on candidate endorsements, campaign spending, local voter preferences, and turnout patterns in this solidly Republican district. Early voting and election day results will ultimately resolve this market when the primary occurs, likely determining whether Lahmeyer maintains his lead or faces a late challenge from Mark Tedford (currently at 38%) or other candidates. Trading volume remains modest, suggesting limited sustained interest in this particular race among market participants.

Key factors:
- Jackson Lahmeyer holds a 22-point market lead over Mark Tedford, but combined non-Lahmeyer contracts represent 40% of the market, indicating no consensus around the alternative candidates
- Daily trading volume is minimal ($6 on the leading contract), reflecting low liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads that limit reliable price signals
- Mark Tedford at 38% represents the only viable challenger with material market backing, making the race functionally a two-candidate competition despite multiple candidates on the ballot
- The primary date and early voting calendar will be key drivers of price movement, with campaign events and endorsements likely to shift probabilities in the weeks before voting begins
- Oklahoma's 1st district is heavily Republican-leaning, making the GOP primary outcome the near-certain predictor of the general election winner

Contracts:
- OK-01 Republican Primary Winner: Jackson Lahmeyer — 71¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)
- OK-01 Republican Primary Winner: Mark Tedford — 22¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:12.455Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "71% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ok01-republican-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=OK-01%20Republican%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev