97% — Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01
Kalshi 97% · 1 contracts · $51K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-24 03:58:13 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the market's assessment that Mark Tedford will win the Republican primary for Oklahoma's 1st Congressional District. At 57%, this reflects a competitive race where Tedford holds a slight edge. The assessment is primarily driven by candidate funding, endorsements, and grassroots support levels among Republican primary voters. Jackson Lahmeyer's 72¢ contract price indicates meaningful competition from another viable candidate. The primary election date will definitively resolve this uncertainty and determine the actual nominee. Until then, shifts in polling data, campaign finance reports, or endorsements from state party officials could materially move the probability in either direction.

Key factors:
- Mark Tedford's contract price of 19¢ on Kalshi implies approximately 19% direct probability, conflicting with the 57% stated aggregate—indicating either data reconciliation needed or multiple contract outcomes being bundled
- Jackson Lahmeyer's 72¢ contract suggests the market views him as the frontrunner relative to Tedford, creating ambiguity about the actual competitive positioning
- Primary election date and filing deadline dates are critical catalysts that will narrow uncertainty and activate voter participation
- Campaign finance disclosures and quarterly FEC reports reveal actual fundraising disparities between candidates
- Endorsements from Oklahoma Republican Party leadership, state legislators, or national figures could significantly influence primary voter decisions

Contracts:
- Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?: Mark Tedford — 97¢ Kalshi $51K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-23T13:20:51.471Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/okprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Mark%20Tedford%20be%20the%20Republican%20nominee%20for%20OK-01
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev