30% — OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May?: 20 Million
Leader: 19 Million at 30% · Polymarket 30% · 3 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-17 07:53:54 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Contracts:
- OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May?: 19 Million — 30¢ Polymarket $261 (weight 24%)
- OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May?: 20 Million — 20¢ Polymarket $106 (weight 10%)
- OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May?: 18 Million — 11¢ Polymarket $710 (weight 66%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-12T13:20:50.774Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "30% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/opec-crude-oil-production-above-may
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=OPEC%20Crude%20Oil%20production%20above%20__%20in%20May%3F%3A%2020%20Million
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev