90% — Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for August 2026 be above 39%
Leader: Above 39.3% at 90% · Kalshi 90% · 7 contracts · $303 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-20 23:29:43 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract measures whether OpenAI model adoption reached above 38.5% on the Ramp AI Index during August 2026. Markets currently assign a 45% probability to this outcome, reflecting uncertainty about adoption velocity in the near term. The primary factors driving this estimate are the frequency and magnitude of new OpenAI model releases, competitive moves by Anthropic and other AI providers, and real-time adoption patterns captured by the Ramp AI Index methodology. Since August 2026 is nearly complete as of the assessment date, the main uncertainty driver is whether final monthly adoption data will cross the 38.5% threshold. The resolution depends on how the Ramp AI Index publishes its end-of-month figure and whether adoption trends stabilize or accelerate in the final days of the month.

Key factors:
- Ramp AI Index historical trend for July 2026 and trajectory entering August would indicate proximity to the 38.5% threshold
- Timing and impact of any new OpenAI model releases or product announcements during August 2026
- Competitive positioning of alternative models (Claude, Gemini, open-source options) and their adoption growth rates in the same period
- Ramp AI Index methodology specifics: how adoption is counted, data collection timing, and whether measurements include API usage, application integrations, or other signals
- Volume concentration in lower-strike contracts (6¢ at >41.5%) versus the leader contract suggests market skepticism about adoption reaching substantially higher levels

Contracts:
- Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for September 2026 be above 39.3%?: Above 39.3% — 90¢ Kalshi $303 (weight 100%)
- Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for September 2026 be above 39.7%?: Above 39.7% — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for September 2026 be above 39.9%?: Above 39.9% — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for September 2026 be above 40.1%?: Above 40.1% — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for September 2026 be above 39.5%?: Above 39.5% — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for September 2026 be above 40.3%?: Above 40.3% — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for September 2026 be above 40.5%?: Above 40.5% — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-11T19:20:52.836Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/openadopt
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ramp%20AI%20Index%20OpenAI%20model%20adoption%20rate%20for%20August%202026%20be%20above%2039%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev