33% — Will OpenAI go public?
Kalshi 97% · Polymarket 78% · 17 contracts · $425K volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-10-24 23:04:52 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Cross-venue gap: 19pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 2 percentage points? — 97¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 0%)
- Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 6 percentage points? — 92¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 1%)
- Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 4 percentage points? — 89¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 0%)
- Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: Goldman Sachs — 78¢ Polymarket $14K (weight 3%)
- Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 8 percentage points? — 63¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 0%)
- Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 10 percentage points? — 47¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 1%)
- Will Brooklyn Beckham be seen in public with David or Victoria Beckham this year? — 30¢ Kalshi $15K (weight 4%)
- Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: Morgan Stanley — 20¢ Polymarket $10K (weight 2%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-28T06:41:25.816Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, October 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/openai-ipo
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20OpenAI%20go%20public%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev