75% — Will OpenAI go public?
Leader: December 31, 2026 at 75% · Polymarket 75% · 4 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Contracts:
- OpenAI IPO by...?: December 31, 2026 — 75¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 49%)
- OpenAI IPO by...?: September 30, 2026 — 37¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 15%)
- OpenAI IPO by...?: August 31, 2026 — 7¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 16%)
- OpenAI IPO by...?: July 31, 2026 — 3¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 19%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:09.371Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "75% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/openai-ipo
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20OpenAI%20go%20public%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev