52% — Will OpenAI go public?
Kalshi 99% · Polymarket 55% · 9 contracts · $26K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-23 23:38:44 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Cross-venue gap: 44pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.24T? — 99¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.59T? — 99¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.64T? — 99¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.69T? — 99¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: Goldman Sachs — 55¢ Polymarket $6K (weight 21%)
- Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: Morgan Stanley — 8¢ Polymarket $5K (weight 20%)
- Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: JPMorgan — 3¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 13%)
- Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.29T? — 0¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-23T06:41:53.853Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "52% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/openai-ipo
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20OpenAI%20go%20public%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev