38% — Will OpenAI go public?
Kalshi 74% · Polymarket 83% · 7 contracts · $819K volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-09-08 14:20:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Cross-venue gap: 9pp (Polymarket higher)

Contracts:
- Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: Goldman Sachs — 83¢ Polymarket $13K (weight 2%)
- Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? — 74¢ Kalshi $180K (weight 22%)
- Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? — 67¢ Kalshi $264K (weight 32%)
- Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? — 20¢ Kalshi $298K (weight 36%)
- Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: Morgan Stanley — 13¢ Polymarket $9K (weight 1%)
- Will a new main Fast & Furious film be officially announced in 2026? — 10¢ Kalshi $27K (weight 3%)
- Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: Bank of America — 1¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 0%)
- Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: Deutsche Bank — 0¢ Polymarket $9K (weight 1%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-08T06:41:23.792Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/openai-ipo
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20OpenAI%20go%20public%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev