47% — OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
Leader: 1.5T+ at 47% · Polymarket 47% · 14 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 05:23:03 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects that traders believe OpenAI will not complete an initial public offering before the end of 2026—about 8 months away. At 72%, the market is pricing this outcome as more likely than an IPO completion, though not overwhelming. The timing hinges on OpenAI's profitability trajectory, regulatory approval timelines, and management decisions about remaining private. Current signals include whether the company files S-1 paperwork, meets SEC milestones, and signals public-market readiness. The main catalyst is any formal SEC filing or official public statement about IPO plans. Until concrete regulatory action or company announcements emerge, traders are treating a 2026 IPO as unlikely but possible.

Key factors:
- No S-1 registration statement has been publicly filed as of early May 2026, suggesting IPO process is not advanced
- OpenAI's valuation trajectory and profitability path would determine market appetite and timeline for public offering
- Historical precedent: comparable AI/software companies typically take 12–18 months from S-1 filing to IPO close
- SEC review and market conditions could accelerate or delay an IPO even if filing occurs imminently
- December 31, 2026 deadline leaves narrow window; any delay into 2027 resolves this contract negatively

Contracts:
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.5T+ — 47¢ Polymarket $973 (weight 24%)
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.5T+ — 42¢ Polymarket $665 (weight 17%)
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 2026 — 28¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 27%)
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.25T–1.5T — 16¢ Polymarket $40 (weight 1%)
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1T–1.25T — 15¢ Polymarket $38 (weight 1%)
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 2027 — 9¢ Polymarket $62 (weight 2%)
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: <500B — 8¢ Polymarket $176 (weight 4%)
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 500–750B — 8¢ Polymarket $39 (weight 1%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:07.216Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "47% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=OpenAI%20IPO%20Closing%20Market%20Cap
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev