16% — OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.25T–1.5T
Leader: 1.25T–1.5T at 16% · Polymarket 16% · 2 contracts · $415 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:02:29 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects traders' assessment that OpenAI will complete an IPO and close with a market capitalization between $1.25 trillion and $1.5 trillion. The 19% probability is relatively low, suggesting the market views either an IPO at this valuation range as unlikely, or that if an IPO occurs, the closing price will fall outside this band. Related contracts show traders place higher probability (73%) on no IPO by end of 2026, and only 11% on a valuation above $1.5 trillion. The primary driver is OpenAI's timeline: the company has not announced IPO plans, and going public requires SEC filing, investor roadshow, and market conditions. A major catalyst would be an official IPO announcement or regulatory filing, which would rapidly resolve the timing uncertainty and shift valuations into measurable outcomes.

Key factors:
- OpenAI has not publicly announced IPO plans or filed preliminary prospectus materials as of May 2026, constraining near-term probability
- Market-wide volatility and tech-sector valuations directly affect IPO execution timing and closing prices for high-growth companies
- Competing contracts price 73% probability of no IPO by December 31, 2026, implying traders expect either delay or a different valuation band if one occurs
- The $1.25T–$1.5T range represents a specific narrow band; valuations above $1.5T and below $1.25T carry higher cumulative probability in the contract set
- Historical precedent: recent mega-cap tech IPOs and SPACs show final closing valuations often diverge from filing range estimates based on market demand and lock-up expiration

Contracts:
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.25T–1.5T — 16¢ Polymarket $40 (weight 10%)
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.25T–1.5T — 5¢ Polymarket $376 (weight 90%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T06:20:11.705Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-125t15t
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=OpenAI%20IPO%20Closing%20Market%20Cap%3A%201.25T%E2%80%931.5T
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev