11% — OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1T–1.25T
Leader: 1T–1.25T at 11% · Polymarket 11% · 2 contracts · $139 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:02:31 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market measures the likelihood that OpenAI will go public with a closing market capitalization between $1 trillion and $1.25 trillion. The current 25% probability reflects meaningful but uncertain odds, positioned between a "no IPO by end-2026" contract at 73% and higher valuation outcomes at 11%. The main drivers are OpenAI's reported willingness to pursue public markets against its history of delaying capital-raising decisions. Related SpaceX IPO contracts show active trading around similar timeframes and valuations, suggesting investor interest in high-cap tech exits. The critical catalyst is any official SEC filing or company announcement—currently there is no confirmed IPO timeline. Resolution depends on whether OpenAI initiates the process in 2026 and achieves this specific valuation band, making both timing and final share price determinative.

Key factors:
- OpenAI has not filed an S-1 with the SEC as of May 2026; any official filing would be a concrete forward-looking event
- The 73% probability on 'no IPO by December 31, 2026' indicates market consensus favors delay beyond this calendar year
- A $1T–$1.25T range sits between the 73¢ bid on 'no IPO' and 11¢ on '$1.5T+', suggesting this band is neither consensus base case nor tail scenario
- SpaceX IPO contracts show active comparison markets at 33¢ for $1.5T–$2.0T, providing relative valuation context for mega-cap tech IPOs
- OpenAI's recent capital rounds and stated governance preferences will influence both IPO timing and final valuation range

Contracts:
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1T–1.25T — 11¢ Polymarket $38 (weight 28%)
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1T–1.25T — 6¢ Polymarket $100 (weight 72%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T06:20:11.828Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-1t125t
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=OpenAI%20IPO%20Closing%20Market%20Cap%3A%201T%E2%80%931.25T
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev