21% — Will Lazard take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028 Kalshi 21% · 15 contracts · $3 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 05:22:56 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects whether Lazard will serve as the lead investment banker for OpenAI's initial public offering before January 1, 2028. Currently priced at 27%, it sits between competitors like Stifel Financial (57%) and Centerview (15%), suggesting moderate confidence in Lazard's candidacy. The level depends on two main variables: whether OpenAI decides to go public at all within the timeframe, and which firm the company selects as lead advisor if an IPO occurs. Lazard's 27% price is driven by its established position in major tech transactions, though competitors command higher implied probabilities, indicating market uncertainty about whether Lazard would be chosen versus larger rivals. The primary catalyst for resolution is OpenAI's formal announcement of IPO plans and its selection of underwriters, which could occur at any time but faces no scheduled deadline. Key factors: - Lazard's historical track record managing billion-dollar technology and media transactions compared to competing banks' recent relevant deals - OpenAI's current ownership structure and whether existing stakeholders (Microsoft, Thrive Capital, others) would influence underwriter selection - The relative pricing of competing underwriter contracts suggests market assigns 57% probability to Stifel, 45% to Raymond James, and 37% to Allen & Company, indicating distributed expectations - No confirmed IPO timeline or underwriter selection announcement has been made as of June 2026, leaving the 18-month resolution window highly uncertain - Lazard's smaller relative probability (27%) versus higher-priced competitors could reflect either lower market confidence or asymmetric information about the company's banking relationships Contracts: - Will Centerview take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Centerview — 9¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 100%) - Will Evercore take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Evercore — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Lazard take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Lazard — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Allen & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Allen & Company — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Qatalyst Partners take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Qatalyst Partners — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Moelis & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Moelis & Company — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will PJT Partners take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: PJT Partners — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Perella Weinberg Partners take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Perella Weinberg Partners — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 7 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:08.884Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/openaibankpublic Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Lazard%20take%20OpenAI%20public%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202028 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev