18% — Will Lazard take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Kalshi 18% · 15 contracts · $11 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-10-23 21:48:14 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the chance that Lazard, a major financial advisory firm, will serve as the lead investment bank for OpenAI's initial public offering before January 1, 2028. The 16% figure sits between competing firms tracked separately on these contracts, with Raymond James priced higher at 42% and most others significantly lower. The outcome depends on OpenAI's timeline for going public—currently uncertain given the company's private funding rounds—and whether Lazard wins the mandate against other banking competitors. No specific IPO date has been announced. The main drivers are OpenAI's internal decision to pursue public markets and its choice of banking partners, both of which could shift substantially based on market conditions, regulatory developments, or the company's financial performance over the next 15 months.

Key factors:
- OpenAI has not publicly committed to an IPO timeline, making any specific banker's chances contingent on the company first deciding to go public
- Lazard's 16% probability is lower than Raymond James (42%) and Allen & Company (29%), suggesting market participants view it as less likely to win the mandate if an IPO occurs
- The 16-month window to January 1, 2028 is relatively short for IPO preparation; typical processes take 6-12 months after mandate selection
- Competitive positioning among investment banks for tech IPO mandates depends on existing relationships, market standing, and pitch performance, all subject to change
- No scheduled announcements or data releases directly tied to Lazard's selection have been publicly announced

Contracts:
- Will Raymond James take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Raymond James — 34¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 100%)
- Will Stifel Financial take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Stifel Financial — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Evercore take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Evercore — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Lazard take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Lazard — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Centerview take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Centerview — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Allen & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Allen & Company — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Qatalyst Partners take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Qatalyst Partners — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Moelis & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Moelis & Company — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 7 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-10-12T16:20:51.541Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, October 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/openaibankpublic
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Lazard%20take%20OpenAI%20public%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202028
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev