83% — Will OpenAI be assigned to Information Technology in the S&P 500 Leader: Information Technology at 83% · Kalshi 83% · 6 contracts · $7 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 01:57:44 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: This represents the market's assessment that when OpenAI joins the S&P 500, it will be classified under Information Technology rather than Communication Services or remain unassigned. The 73% probability reflects Information Technology as the leading outcome, though 27% of contract value is allocated to alternatives. Classification depends on S&P Dow Jones Indices' methodology, which categorizes companies based on revenue sources and business focus. OpenAI's primary revenue comes from AI services and software, pointing toward Information Technology, but its consumer-facing Chat interface and content distribution could support Communication Services classification. The catalyst is OpenAI's S&P 500 inclusion announcement, which will specify the assigned sector. Until then, uncertainty persists around how index administrators weigh OpenAI's diverse revenue streams and whether they prioritize enterprise AI services or consumer-facing products in their classification decision. Key factors: - S&P Dow Jones Indices' official classification methodology favors Information Technology for software and AI service providers with enterprise revenue - OpenAI's revenue composition—estimated heavily weighted toward enterprise API and ChatGPT Plus subscriptions—supports IT classification over Communication Services - Historical precedent shows AI and software companies like NVIDIA and Palantir classified as Information Technology, establishing a baseline expectation - Communication Services classification would require S&P to emphasize OpenAI's consumer products (ChatGPT) as primary business driver, contradicting typical IT sector assignments - No official S&P sector pre-announcement has been disclosed, making the 27% non-IT probability dependent on unexpected revenue breakdown or reclassification policy changes Contracts: - Will OpenAI be assigned to Information Technology?: Information Technology — 83¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 100%) - Will OpenAI be assigned to Unassigned?: Unassigned — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will OpenAI be assigned to Communication Services?: Communication Services — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will OpenAI be assigned to Health Care?: Health Care — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will OpenAI be assigned to Materials?: Materials — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will OpenAI be assigned to Real Estate?: Real Estate — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-24T01:20:50.303Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "83% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/openaisector Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20OpenAI%20be%20assigned%20to%20Information%20Technology%20in%20the%20S%26P%20500 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev