23% — Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above ___ end of April?: $8.00
Kalshi 23% · 1 contracts · $658 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 05:19:54 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) stock will close above $8.00 at the end of April 2026. The 9% probability reflects market skepticism about the stock reaching that price level within the specified timeframe. The main drivers of this low probability are Opendoor's current trading range and the time remaining until the April deadline. Factors that could shift this probability include quarterly earnings reports demonstrating stronger-than-expected business performance, broader real estate market improvements affecting housing demand, or company-specific operational developments. The key catalyst will be Opendoor's earnings announcements between now and April 2026, as these reports typically trigger significant stock movement and will provide concrete evidence of the company's financial trajectory.

Key factors:
- Opendoor's current stock price relative to the $8.00 strike and historical volatility patterns
- Quarterly earnings results and guidance from Opendoor between May 2026 and April 2027
- Broader real estate market conditions and housing transaction volumes affecting iBuying business fundamentals
- Changes in interest rates and mortgage availability that impact residential property valuations
- Any significant management changes, strategic pivots, or acquisition activity announced by the company

Contracts:
- Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity?: OpenAI — 23¢ Kalshi $658 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T04:20:50.840Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/opendoor-open-close-above-april
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Opendoor%20(OPEN)%20close%20above%20___%20end%20of%20April%3F%3A%20%248.00
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev