93% — OpenAI market share this week
Leader: Above 15% at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 6 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 01:17:48 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability indicates traders see a 93% chance that OpenAI holds the largest market share in AI services this week, based on aggregated pricing from six contracts on Kalshi. The current level reflects confidence in OpenAI's existing customer base and product adoption, though substantial uncertainty remains around competitor gains or market consolidation. Key drivers include reported usage metrics, enterprise contract announcements, and competitive product releases from rivals like Anthropic, Google, and Meta. Resolution will depend on how market share is measured—typically revenue, active users, or API call volume—and the specific reference week chosen. Upcoming analyst reports, earnings statements, or major contract wins could shift the probability meaningfully, as could significant improvements in competitor offerings or pricing changes that affect market dynamics.

Key factors:
- The probability reflects a 93% leader price from six separate winner-take-all contracts, not an average—indicating substantial but not overwhelming consensus among traders
- Recent competitor product launches or feature parity claims would lower this probability if they demonstrably capture market share during the measured week
- The specific definition of market share (revenue vs. active users vs. API volume) will determine which company qualifies as leader and affects how traders price uncertainty
- Any material contract win or loss announced during the week could shift the outcome, particularly for large enterprises or government agencies
- Historical pricing patterns on these contracts show 6-7 point spreads between leader and runner-up, suggesting traders see real but concentrated uncertainty around leadership

Contracts:
- OpenAI market share this week?: Above 15% — 93¢ Kalshi $569 (weight 9%)
- OpenAI market share this week?: Above 15.5% — 86¢ Kalshi $297 (weight 5%)
- OpenAI market share this week?: Above 16% — 80¢ Kalshi $376 (weight 6%)
- OpenAI market share this week?: Above 16.5% — 58¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 16%)
- OpenAI market share this week?: Above 17% — 53¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 34%)
- OpenAI market share this week?: Above 17.5% — 34¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 31%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-14T01:20:51.991Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/openshare
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=OpenAI%20market%20share%20this%20week
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev