80% — Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.32 at 10AM ET on Aug 14, 2026 Leader: Above $0.20 at 80% · Kalshi 80% · 20 contracts · $201 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 00:11:37 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates the likelihood that OpenAI's average token price will exceed $0.32 per token by 10AM ET on August 14, 2026—one week from today. The 73% probability reflects trader expectations that prices will remain at or above this threshold during the settlement window. Token pricing fluctuates based on demand for OpenAI's API services, model updates, competitive pricing from rival providers, and broader market conditions for AI infrastructure costs. The single most important factor is whether OpenAI announces price changes or new service tiers before the settlement date. Traders are also pricing in typical weekly volatility and seasonal patterns in API usage. The contract structure shows declining probabilities for higher price thresholds ($0.35, $0.38, $0.41), indicating meaningful uncertainty about how far prices might rise, but relative confidence they will stay above the $0.32 floor. Key factors: - OpenAI's published API token pricing as of August 7, 2026, and any official price announcements through August 14 10AM ET - Comparative pricing movements from competing providers (Anthropic, Google, other AI API services) during the settlement week - Historical volatility patterns in OpenAI token pricing over equivalent weekly windows in prior months - Volume and demand signals from major API consumers that might influence dynamic pricing or promotional adjustments - Any scheduled product announcements, model releases, or service updates from OpenAI between now and settlement that could impact token valuation Contracts: - Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.20 at 10AM ET on Aug 31, 2026: Above $0.20 — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.32 at 10AM ET on Aug 14, 2026: Above $0.32 — 75¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.35 at 10AM ET on Aug 14, 2026: Above $0.35 — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.30 at 10AM ET on Aug 31, 2026: Above $0.30 — 65¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.38 at 10AM ET on Aug 14, 2026: Above $0.38 — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.41 at 10AM ET on Aug 14, 2026: Above $0.41 — 54¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.40 at 10AM ET on Aug 31, 2026: Above $0.40 — 50¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.44 at 10AM ET on Aug 14, 2026: Above $0.44 — 46¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-09T23:20:49.503Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "80% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/opentokend Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20OpenAI%20average%20token%20price%20be%20above%200.32%20at%2010AM%20ET%20on%20Aug%2014%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev