12% — Will Charles Melton win Best Actor at the Oscars Kalshi 12% · 9 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 12:59:59 UTC Why this matters: Charles Melton's 26% probability reflects market assessment of his likelihood to win Best Actor at the upcoming Oscars ceremony. This probability is based on limited trading activity on prediction markets, with the current estimate derived from just two Kalshi contracts. The main drivers of this probability would be Melton's film release schedule, critical reception of his performances, and competitive landscape among other actors in contention. The primary catalyst for resolving uncertainty will be the announcement of Official Academy Award nominations, typically occurring in early 2027, which will clarify whether Melton receives a nomination and reveal the full slate of competitors. Until then, market prices may shift based on early festival seasons, critic reviews, and industry commentary about potential contenders. Key factors: - Limited market liquidity with only two Kalshi contracts trading suggests this probability reflects sparse betting rather than deep consensus; higher volume would provide stronger signal of informed opinion - Charles Melton's nomination status remains unconfirmed, with Academy Awards nominations typically announced in January 2027, creating substantial uncertainty until official announcement - Competitive intensity in Best Actor category significantly influences individual candidate probabilities; emergence of strong contenders or withdrawal of competing films would directly impact pricing - Trading volume of $5,112 over 24 hours indicates relatively low market interest compared to Best Picture contracts, suggesting less sophisticated price discovery - No upcoming scheduled events, award season festivals, or film releases specific to Melton appear imminent that would catalyze significant probability movement before official nominations Contracts: - Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the Oscars?: Matt Damon — 30¢ Kalshi $786 (weight 36%) - Will Robert Pattison win Best Actor at the Oscars?: Robert Pattison — 11¢ Kalshi $660 (weight 30%) - Will Ryan Gosling win Best Actor at the Oscars?: Ryan Gosling — 4¢ Kalshi $593 (weight 27%) - Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the Oscars?: Tom Cruise — 29¢ Kalshi $79 (weight 4%) - Will Jeremy Strong win Best Actor at the Oscars?: Jeremy Strong — 3¢ Kalshi $47 (weight 2%) - Will Andrew Scott win Best Actor at the Oscars?: Andrew Scott — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Charles Melton win Best Actor at the Oscars?: Charles Melton — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Channing Tatum win Best Actor at the Oscars?: Channing Tatum — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T12:20:50.941Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscaracto Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Charles%20Melton%20win%20Best%20Actor%20at%20the%20Oscars Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev