16% — Will Tie win Best Actress at the Oscars
Kalshi 16% · 5 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-28 08:38:02 UTC

Why this matters:
This 12% probability reflects market expectations that Tie will win the Best Actress Oscar award. The current level suggests traders view Tie as an outside contender among the year's acting performances. The probability is likely driven by the strength of Tie's recent work and visibility heading into awards season, though it remains well below leading candidates. Key catalysts include the Golden Globe and BAFTA results, which typically signal momentum in the Oscar race, and the final Oscar nominations announcement, which determines the actual competitive field. Any significant critical or industry recognition would push expectations higher, while competing performances gaining traction could reduce Tie's chances.

Key factors:
- Tie's nomination status in major precursor awards (Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG Awards) and their outcomes
- The overall strength and number of competing Best Actress contenders in the 2026 race
- Critical reception and industry commentary about Tie's performance relative to peers
- Historical voting patterns showing how often outside contenders at 12% probability convert to wins
- Tie's profile and previous Oscar history, if any, as a predictor of voter behavior

Contracts:
- Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the Oscars?: Inde Navarrette — 19¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 49%)
- Will Anne hathaway win Best Actress at the Oscars?: Anne hathaway — 6¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 41%)
- Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the Oscars?: Renate Reinsve — 11¢ Kalshi $410 (weight 9%)
- Will Sandra Hüller win Best Actress at the Oscars?: Sandra Hüller — 13¢ Kalshi $21 (weight 0%)
- Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the Oscars?: Julianne Moore — 30¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-28T02:20:49.405Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscaractr
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tie%20win%20Best%20Actress%20at%20the%20Oscars
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev