19% — Will Hoppers win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars
Kalshi 19% · 5 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 06:41:43 UTC

Why this matters:
This 22% probability represents the estimated odds that Hoppers will win the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film at the next Oscars ceremony. The estimate is significantly lower than Toy Story 5, which trades at 61%, suggesting market participants view Hoppers as a secondary contender in the animated feature category. The probability reflects assessments of the film's critical reception, industry recognition through precursor awards (like the Golden Globes and Annie Awards), and its standing relative to other nominees. Key drivers of movement would include changes in critical consensus, performance at film festivals, or shifts in voter sentiment within the Academy. The final resolution occurs at the Oscars ceremony, which typically takes place in early 2027 for films released in 2026. Until then, the probability may adjust based on emerging information about the competitive landscape and Hoppers' reception among Academy members.

Key factors:
- Toy Story 5 currently trades at 3.6x higher probability, indicating strong market confidence in its competitive position relative to Hoppers
- Zero trading volume in the 24-hour period for the Hoppers contract suggests minimal recent market activity and conviction
- Hoppers ranks third among the four tracked contracts, behind both Toy Story 5 and Wildwood in implied probability
- The market assigns combined probability of 81% to the three competitors versus 19% for Hoppers, indicating it is viewed as a long-shot entry
- Precursor award season performance (Golden Globes, Annie Awards, BAFTA) will provide major data points before Academy voting occurs in late 2026

Contracts:
- Will Wildwood win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars?: Wildwood — 25¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 80%)
- Will Tangles win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars?: Tangles — 4¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 16%)
- Will Toy Story 5 win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars?: Toy Story 5 — 57¢ Kalshi $52 (weight 4%)
- Will Hoppers win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars?: Hoppers — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Tie win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars?: Tie — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-08-10T06:20:52.066Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscaranimated
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Hoppers%20win%20Best%20Animated%20Feature%20Film%20at%20the%20Oscars
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev