9% — Will Project Hail Mary win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars
Kalshi 9% · 6 contracts · $697 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-11 02:36:33 UTC

Why this matters:
This 18% probability reflects the market's assessment that Project Hail Mary has an 18-in-100 chance of winning the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar. The low probability suggests significant competition from other adapted screenplays. Key drivers include the film's critical reception, box office performance, and industry sentiment during awards season. The main uncertainty resolves at the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony, scheduled for March 2, 2027, when the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay will be announced. Between now and then, the probability may shift based on major film festival recognitions, critical reviews, industry guild award nominations (such as the Writers Guild Awards in February 2027), and public campaigning by the studio.

Key factors:
- Project Hail Mary's screenplay adaptation quality and how closely it adheres to or diverges from Andy Weir's source material
- Competitive field strength: whether other adapted screenplays generate stronger critical consensus or industry support
- Guild award performance: nominations and wins at Writers Guild Awards or similar industry bodies before the Oscars
- Box office and cultural impact: whether the film maintains audience and critic enthusiasm through awards season
- Studio campaign intensity: resources and visibility devoted to promoting the screenplay adaptation relative to competitors

Contracts:
- Will The Odyssey win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?: The Odyssey — 30¢ Kalshi $474 (weight 68%)
- Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?: The Black Ball — 4¢ Kalshi $210 (weight 30%)
- Will The Invite win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?: The Invite — 9¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 2%)
- Will Project Hail Mary win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?: Project Hail Mary — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will The Adventures of Cliff Booth win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?: The Adventures of Cliff Booth — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Toy Story 5 win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?: Toy Story 5 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-11T02:20:52.681Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarasplay
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Project%20Hail%20Mary%20win%20Best%20Adapted%20Screenplay%20at%20the%20Oscars
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev