5% — Will Nuisance Bear win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars Kalshi 5% · 8 contracts · $455 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 06:41:42 UTC Why this matters: This reflects the probability that Nuisance Bear will win the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film at the next Oscars ceremony. With a 4% probability, the market is pricing this as a long-shot outcome. The current assessment likely reflects limited early buzz or critical recognition compared to other documentary contenders. Documentary feature odds are typically driven by festival circuit performance, critical reception, streaming platform backing, and industry voting patterns among Academy members. The main catalyst will be the official Oscar nominations announcement, which will immediately clarify whether Nuisance Bear has secured a nomination and how it ranks against competing films. The nomination itself would substantially shift expectations about winning chances. Key factors: - The film's performance at major documentary festivals (Sundance, IDFA, Hot Docs, Sheffield Doc/Fest) will influence critic and Academy voter awareness - Current industry trade publications and major awards prediction outlets show minimal coverage or predictions favoring this film as a frontrunner - Streaming platform backing and theatrical release strategy significantly impact visibility and voting turnout within the Academy's documentary branch - The film must first receive a nomination to have realistic winning odds; non-nominated films carry negligible chances regardless of quality - Competitive field strength matters—the probability reflects assumptions about other contending documentaries and their relative strength rather than absolute assessment of this film's merits Contracts: - Will American Doctor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?: American Doctor — 14¢ Kalshi $455 (weight 100%) - Will Musk win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?: Musk — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Nuisance Bear win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?: Nuisance Bear — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will One in a Million win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?: One in a Million — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?: Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Tutu win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?: Tutu — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Once Upon a Time in Harlem win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?: Once Upon a Time in Harlem — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Tie win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?: Tie — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T06:20:50.729Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscardocu Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Nuisance%20Bear%20win%20Best%20Documentary%20Feature%20Film%20at%20the%20Oscars Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev