9% — Will Clayface win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the Oscars Kalshi 9% · 7 contracts · $604 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 09:06:36 UTC Why this matters: This 11% probability reflects market expectations that Clayface will win the Academy Award for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 2027 Oscars ceremony. The low probability suggests traders view Clayface as a longshot compared to other contenders like The Odyssey and Wicker. The makeup award outcome depends primarily on the quality and visibility of the film's makeup work, critical reception of the film overall, and how the Academy voting body responds to the specific makeup achievements. The resolution is scheduled for the 2027 Oscar ceremony, typically held in March, when Academy members cast final votes. Until nominees are formally announced and campaigning intensifies closer to the ceremony, the market reflects significant uncertainty about how Clayface will be positioned relative to stronger contenders. Key factors: - Clayface's makeup work has not yet received significant awards recognition or critical acclaim in major industry publications - The film's overall commercial and critical performance will likely influence voters' engagement with its technical categories - Competing films' makeup achievements and their studios' awards campaign intensity will directly affect relative voting patterns - The formal Oscar nomination announcement will reduce uncertainty and establish Clayface's competitive positioning against confirmed rivals - Historical voting patterns show Best Makeup and Hairstyling often rewards practical makeup effects on period pieces or transformative work, which may or may not align with Clayface's technical approach Contracts: - Will Digger win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the Oscars?: Digger — 7¢ Kalshi $400 (weight 66%) - Will Werwulf win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the Oscars?: Werwulf — 6¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 33%) - Will Wicker win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the Oscars?: Wicker — 16¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 1%) - Will Clayface win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the Oscars?: Clayface — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Dune: Part Three win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the Oscars?: Dune: Part Three — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will The Odyssey win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the Oscars?: The Odyssey — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Rose win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the Oscars?: Rose — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T07:20:49.324Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarmah Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Clayface%20win%20Best%20Makeup%20and%20Hairstyling%20at%20the%20Oscars Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev