84% — 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations
Leader: Matt Damon at 84% · Kalshi 84% · 18 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 05:04:40 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents the market's assessment that Matt Damon will receive a Best Actor Oscar nomination for the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony (honoring 2026 films). At 80 cents, the contract reflects substantial trader confidence in his nomination, though not overwhelming certainty. The probability is primarily shaped by his upcoming film releases and their critical reception—major festival selections or strong reviews would likely increase the odds, while poor box-office or critical performance could reduce them. The key catalyst will be the official Oscar nomination announcement in early 2027, though the months leading up to it will see significant movement as year-end films premiere, award season competitions (Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG Awards) conclude, and industry sentiment crystallizes. Notably, Ryan Gosling's contract trades at 59 cents, indicating market uncertainty about whether multiple major actors will secure nominations in what remains an unpredictable selection process.

Key factors:
- Matt Damon has 2-3 significant film releases planned for 2026; their festival selection, critical reviews, and box-office performance will directly influence nomination likelihood
- Ryan Gosling's lower contract price (59 cents) suggests traders view his nomination odds as materially worse, creating meaningful differentiation in a field where multiple actors could theoretically qualify
- The SAG Awards and BAFTA nominations, typically announced in January 2027, serve as strong leading indicators for Oscar nominations and will likely cause substantial price movement
- Academy voting is influenced by recent high-profile roles and industry recognition; performance at other major ceremonies (Golden Globes in January) will significantly impact perception
- Historical nomination patterns show that major stars receive nominations roughly 60-85% of the time when positioning themselves for awards season, providing a baseline for evaluating individual odds

Contracts:
- 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?: Matt Damon — 84¢ Kalshi $368 (weight 35%)
- 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?: Tom Cruise — 72¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 2%)
- 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?: Ryan Gosling — 57¢ Kalshi $86 (weight 8%)
- 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?: Sebastian Stan — 42¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?: Pedro Pascal — 39¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?: Andrew Scott — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?: Timothée Chalamet — 22¢ Kalshi $306 (weight 29%)
- 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?: Jaafar Jackson — 19¢ Kalshi $56 (weight 5%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T04:20:50.317Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarnomacto
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2027%20Best%20Actor%20Oscar%20nominations
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev