65% — 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations
Leader: John Malkovich at 65% · Kalshi 65% · 19 contracts · $734 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:04 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market is pricing a 65% probability that Jaafar Jackson receives a Best Actor Oscar nomination for the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. The nomination window typically opens in early 2027 when films become eligible and close in late January, with nominations announced in late January or early February. The current odds reflect market participants' assessment of Jackson's competitive position against other likely nominees, based on available film slate information and historical voting patterns. Key variables include the performance and critical reception of Jackson's nominated film during the award season, the overall strength of the 2027 acting field, and voter sentiment during the actual voting period. The biggest catalyst will be the official nomination announcement in late January or February 2027, which will definitively settle this contract. Until then, market pricing adjusts as new films release, critical reviews emerge, and industry insiders share predictions.

Key factors:
- Jaafar Jackson's contract trades at 65¢ while nearest competitor Ryan Gosling is at 51¢, indicating market differentiation but relatively close competition
- The underlying Kalshi contracts show low trading volume ($597 24h for the leader), suggesting limited liquidity and potentially high bid-ask spreads
- No films or roles are named in the contract structure, meaning the market is pricing nomination probability regardless of specific project details
- The 2027 nomination announcement will occur in late January or early February 2027, providing a hard resolution date for all 16 competing actor outcomes
- Historical Best Actor nomination rates suggest nominees typically come from approximately 10-15 major studio/prestige releases, making field strength a material variable

Contracts:
- 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?: John Malkovich — 65¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?: Tom Cruise — 59¢ Kalshi $317 (weight 43%)
- 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?: Ryan Gosling — 57¢ Kalshi $386 (weight 53%)
- 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?: Sebastian Stan — 57¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?: Matt Damon — 38¢ Kalshi $28 (weight 4%)
- 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?: Jeremy Strong — 29¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?: Timothée Chalamet — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?: Dominic Sessa — 27¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- ... and 11 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:10.624Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "65% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarnomacto
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2027%20Best%20Actor%20Oscar%20nominations
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev