60% — 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations
Leader: Julianne Moore at 60% · Kalshi 60% · 18 contracts · $591 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 05:51:03 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This reflects the current market estimate that Sandra Hüller will receive a Best Actress Oscar nomination for the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. At 46%, the market prices her as the leading contender, though substantially competitive with a runner-up candidate at 42%, indicating genuine uncertainty about which actresses will ultimately be nominated. The probability is driven by Hüller's recent film performance visibility, award-season momentum, and historical patterns of which actresses tend to secure nominations. The key catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the official Oscar nomination announcement, currently scheduled for early 2027. Leading up to that date, major factors include continued festival recognition, critical reception of competing performances, guild awards like the SAG Awards and BAFTA nominations (typically announced in January), and any shifts in industry conversation about frontrunners. Market prices reflect traders' assessments of these evolving signals rather than polling or definitive industry consensus.

Key factors:
- Sandra Hüller's recent filmography and festival recognition relative to competing actresses
- SAG Awards and BAFTA nominations in January 2027 as leading indicators of Oscar nomination likelihood
- The specific slate of films released and eligible for the 2027 Oscar cycle, which determines the pool of possible nominees
- Historical patterns showing approximately 5 actresses are nominated each year, making the competitive field and relative positioning of candidates critical
- Market concentration on Hüller (46%) versus runner-up (42%) suggests traders view this as genuinely competitive rather than a clear frontrunner scenario

Contracts:
- 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Julianne Moore — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Inde Navarrette — 55¢ Kalshi $203 (weight 34%)
- 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Renate Reinsve — 50¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Sandra Hüller — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Michelle Williams — 43¢ Kalshi $65 (weight 11%)
- 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Mikey Madison — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Cynthia Erivo — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Penélope Cruz — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T05:20:50.757Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "60% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarnomactr
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2027%20Best%20Actress%20Oscar%20nominations
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev