91% — 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations
Leader: Julianne Moore at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 13 contracts · $733 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-22 17:39:22 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents the likelihood that Julianne Moore receives a Best Actress nomination for the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. Moore currently leads competing actresses in the prediction markets by a notable margin, with the second-place candidate at 56 cents suggesting meaningful uncertainty about the field. Her probability reflects recent film performance, industry perception, and typical patterns in Oscar nomination voting. The nomination landscape will shift based on remaining 2026 film releases, critical reception, and guild award nominations (SAG Awards, BAFTA, Golden Globes) which typically emerge between December 2026 and January 2027. These preliminary honors serve as strong predictive signals for Academy voters, making the coming award season the primary driver of nomination probability changes.

Key factors:
- Julianne Moore's films releasing in 2026 and their critical/box office reception versus competing actresses' projects
- Outcome of early-season awards (Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG nominations) announced January-February 2027, which historically correlate with Oscar nomination patterns
- Number and relative prominence of competing actresses' eligible films in the 2026-2027 qualifying window
- Moore's voting history with Academy members and recency bias toward recent acclaimed roles
- Official Oscar eligibility and submission requirements met by competing candidates' films

Contracts:
- 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Julianne Moore — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Inde Navarrette — 66¢ Kalshi $102 (weight 14%)
- 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Olivia Wilde — 44¢ Kalshi $257 (weight 35%)
- 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Sandra Hüller — 44¢ Kalshi $72 (weight 10%)
- 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Renate Reinsve — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Virginie Efira — 34¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 27%)
- 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Rosalind Eleazar — 12¢ Kalshi $87 (weight 12%)
- 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Emily Blunt — 12¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 2%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-22T17:20:51.192Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarnomactr
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2027%20Best%20Actress%20Oscar%20nominations
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev