61% — 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations Leader: Renate Reinsve at 61% · Kalshi 61% · 19 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:04 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes. Why this matters: This reflects the current market estimate that Sandra Hüller will receive a Best Actress Oscar nomination for the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. At 46%, the market prices her as the leading contender, though substantially competitive with a runner-up candidate at 42%, indicating genuine uncertainty about which actresses will ultimately be nominated. The probability is driven by Hüller's recent film performance visibility, award-season momentum, and historical patterns of which actresses tend to secure nominations. The key catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the official Oscar nomination announcement, currently scheduled for early 2027. Leading up to that date, major factors include continued festival recognition, critical reception of competing performances, guild awards like the SAG Awards and BAFTA nominations (typically announced in January), and any shifts in industry conversation about frontrunners. Market prices reflect traders' assessments of these evolving signals rather than polling or definitive industry consensus. Key factors: - Sandra Hüller's recent filmography and festival recognition relative to competing actresses - SAG Awards and BAFTA nominations in January 2027 as leading indicators of Oscar nomination likelihood - The specific slate of films released and eligible for the 2027 Oscar cycle, which determines the pool of possible nominees - Historical patterns showing approximately 5 actresses are nominated each year, making the competitive field and relative positioning of candidates critical - Market concentration on Hüller (46%) versus runner-up (42%) suggests traders view this as genuinely competitive rather than a clear frontrunner scenario Contracts: - 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Renate Reinsve — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Sandra Hüller — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Julianne Moore — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Mikey Madison — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Emily Blunt — 43¢ Kalshi $346 (weight 14%) - 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Inde Navarrette — 32¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 72%) - 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Cynthia Erivo — 32¢ Kalshi $301 (weight 12%) - 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Michelle Williams — 32¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:08.604Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "61% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarnomactr Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2027%20Best%20Actress%20Oscar%20nominations Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev