68% — 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations
Leader: The Black Ball at 68% · Kalshi 68% · 13 contracts · $42 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 13:56:32 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents the 60% probability that a specific film or screenplay will receive a Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nomination at the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. The current pricing reflects modest confidence among traders, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about which screenplays voters will select. The nomination field typically narrows between now and late 2026, as industry prognosticators identify frontrunners based on festival performance, critical reception, and guild recognition patterns. The Writers Guild Awards eligibility and nominations (usually January-February 2027) will serve as a key signal of adapted screenplay momentum. Additionally, major film festival selections and critical consensus building over the next 8-10 months will substantially influence trader expectations. The low contract volumes suggest limited trading activity, which can amplify price sensitivity to new information about eligible films and their industry positioning.

Key factors:
- Writers Guild Awards nominations for adapted screenplay category (typically January-February 2027) will provide direct evidence of peer recognition and shift expectations
- Major film festivals (Venice, Toronto, NYFF) over fall 2026 will affect which adapted screenplays gain critical legitimacy and award-season visibility
- The specific films competing for nominations will not be fully defined until studios finalize 2026-2027 release schedules and submission strategies
- Trading volume remains low ($180-697 daily across top contracts), indicating limited market conviction and potential for repricing as more information emerges
- Historical Academy voting patterns show adapted screenplays from prestige dramas and literary adaptations dominate nominations, which will influence which projects receive trader attention

Contracts:
- 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?: The Black Ball — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?: Project Hail Mary — 63¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?: The Odyssey — 59¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 19%)
- 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?: The Social Reckoning — 49¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?: Dune: Part Three — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?: The Adventures of Cliff Booth — 33¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?: All of a Sudden — 33¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?: Cry to Heaven — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T13:20:07.809Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "68% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarnomasplay
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2027%20Best%20Adapted%20Screenplay%20Oscar%20nominations
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev