84% — 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations Leader: The Black Ball at 84% · Kalshi 84% · 8 contracts · $40 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-23 02:02:58 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectations that the 2027 Academy Awards will receive nominations in the International Feature Film category—a core component of the Oscars that has occurred consistently for decades. The 86% price indicates traders view this as highly likely but not certain, accounting for risks like major changes to Academy rules or the elimination of this category. The primary driver of movement will be official Academy announcements regarding 2027 Oscar categories, particularly any structural changes to the awards process. The critical resolution point is the Academy's formal announcement of eligible categories for the 2027 ceremony, typically made in the fall preceding the ceremony. Secondary factors include any major institutional decisions affecting the film industry that might influence Academy governance. Key factors: - The International Feature Film category has been a consistent Oscar category for 20+ years with no official signals of discontinuation - Academy governance changes are rare and typically announced well in advance through official channels, not through informal reporting - The category's elimination would require deliberate institutional action from the Academy, not passive omission - Current market prices on specific films (1949/Fatherland at 68¢, The Black Ball at 84¢) suggest traders expect the category to exist for film selection - The 24-hour volume of $0 across all contracts indicates minimal recent trading activity, meaning the 86% price may reflect older information rather than fresh market signals Contracts: - 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: The Black Ball — 84¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: All of a Sudden — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Fjord — 73¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 26%) - 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Possible Love — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: 1949 / Fatherland — 45¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 24%) - 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Coward — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Minotaur — 10¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 49%) - 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Parallel Tales — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-23T01:20:49.226Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarnominterfilm Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2027%20Best%20International%20Feature%20Film%20Oscar%20nominations Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev