82% — 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations
Leader: 1949 / Fatherland at 82% · Kalshi 82% · 14 contracts · $558 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-30 01:23:45 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability indicates market traders estimate approximately 68% odds that "1949 / Fatherland" will receive a nomination for Best International Feature Film at the 2027 Academy Awards. The current assessment reflects the film's standing relative to competing international submissions as of May 2026. The trajectory could shift based on festival performance, critical reception updates, and industry discourse over the coming months leading to the December 2026 submission deadline. The primary catalyst for resolution occurs when the Academy announces official nominations in January 2027, which will definitively determine whether this particular film qualifies. Until then, market participants are pricing in moderate confidence balanced against uncertainty from competing films and potential late-season entries that could affect its nomination prospects.

Key factors:
- "1949 / Fatherland" must be officially submitted by its country's Film Academy to the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences by the December 2026 international feature submission deadline
- The film's ranking relative to other international submissions will become clearer through major film festival selections and industry screenings between May and November 2026
- Critical reviews and international film community reception over the next eight months will influence trader confidence in its nomination viability
- Competing films from major film-producing nations and emerging regional submissions could reduce the probability if they gain stronger industry momentum
- Official nomination announcements occur in January 2027, which is the binary resolution event that will determine the contract outcome

Contracts:
- 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: 1949 / Fatherland — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: The Black Ball — 78¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Fjord — 67¢ Kalshi $558 (weight 100%)
- 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: All of a Sudden — 57¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Minotaur — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Coward — 32¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Rose — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Hope — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-30T01:20:48.975Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "82% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarnominterfilm
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2027%20Best%20International%20Feature%20Film%20Oscar%20nominations
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev