66% — 2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations
Leader: Digger at 66% · Kalshi 66% · 11 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 13:56:31 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects traders' expectations that the 2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling category will receive five nominations as currently structured by the Academy. The 64% probability on the leading contract suggests moderate confidence in this outcome, though significant uncertainty remains. The main driver is Academy precedent—this category has maintained five nominations in recent years, but the Academy occasionally adjusts nomination counts based on submission volume and ballot participation. The key catalyst will be the Academy's official announcement of 2027 Oscar eligibility rules and nomination procedures, typically released in late 2026 or early 2027. Market movement would likely follow any public signals about potential reforms to voting procedures or category structure. Current trading volume remains modest, indicating limited institutional participation in these specific contracts.

Key factors:
- Academy's historical pattern shows five nominations in this category for recent ceremonies, establishing baseline precedent
- Official eligibility and nomination rules announcement, typically 6-9 months before the ceremony, will clarify whether structural changes are planned
- Submission volume in makeup and hairstyling films affects whether the five-nomination threshold is sustainable under current ballot design
- Changes to Academy voting procedures or technological limitations in the balloting system could force category restructuring
- Precedent shifts in other technical categories (where nomination counts have varied) may signal broader willingness to modify this category's structure

Contracts:
- 2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?: Digger — 66¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- 2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?: Dune: Part Three — 50¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- 2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?: Werwulf — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- 2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?: Clayface — 36¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- 2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?: The Odyssey — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- 2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?: Cry to Heaven — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- 2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?: Michael — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- 2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?: Madden — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T13:20:07.242Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "66% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarnommakeup
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2027%20Best%20Makeup%20and%20Hairstyling%20Oscar%20nominations
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev