78% — 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations
Leader: Project Hail Mary at 78% · Kalshi 78% · 18 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 09:27:46 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability represents the market's assessment that "The Odyssey" will receive a Best Picture nomination at the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. The film is currently priced at 86 cents, indicating strong confidence in its nomination, though this reflects traders' expectations rather than official confirmation. The nomination probability is driven by available reviews, festival reception, and historical patterns of similar films achieving Oscar recognition. Major factors include the film's critical performance during the current awards season, competition from other strong contenders like "Disclosure Day" (priced at 41 cents), and the Academy's tendency to nominate certain genres or storytelling styles. The key catalyst will be the official announcement of the 2027 Best Picture nominations, which typically occurs in late January 2027, resolving all uncertainty around this contract.

Key factors:
- The Odyssey's critical reception scores and festival performance compared to historical Oscar nominees
- Competition intensity from other nominated titles, particularly "Disclosure Day" and films trading below 10 cents
- The relative trading volume and price stability of The Odyssey contract ($90 in 24h volume) versus lower-conviction contracts like Michael and Narnia
- Academy voting patterns for films in The Odyssey's genre and production category over the past five years
- Any significant cast, director, or production company announcements between now and the January 2027 nomination announcement deadline

Contracts:
- 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Project Hail Mary — 78¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 57%)
- 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Dune: Part Three — 72¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Digger — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: The Black Ball — 61¢ Kalshi $121 (weight 3%)
- 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: The Adventures of Cliff Booth — 36¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Club Kid — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Disclosure Day — 32¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Being Heumann — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T09:20:09.095Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "78% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarnompic
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2027%20Best%20Picture%20Oscar%20nominations
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev