89% — 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations
Leader: Project Hail Mary at 89% · Kalshi 89% · 19 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 05:51:03 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations for which film will receive a Best Picture Oscar nomination in the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. Project Hail Mary is currently trading at 86%, suggesting traders view it as a strong contender for inclusion among the nominated films. The outcome depends primarily on how the film performs with critics and audiences between now and voting, along with competitive strength from other major releases like Dune: Part Three (74%) and The Invite (41%). The Academy's voting process occurs in early 2027, with nominations announced in January and winners decided at the March ceremony. Key uncertainties include post-production completion status, festival reception at major venues like Venice and Toronto, and how industry voters respond relative to competing films in the same year.

Key factors:
- Project Hail Mary's current production and post-production timeline relative to festival season deadlines
- Critical reception scores (Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic) and nominations at major precursor ceremonies (BAFTA, Golden Globes, SAG Awards)
- Box office performance and audience reception, which influence Academy voter familiarity and enthusiasm
- Competitive field strength, particularly Dune: Part Three's perceived nomination chances and other major studio releases
- Academy nomination patterns—historical data on whether sci-fi films receive Best Picture nominations in the relevant voting categories

Contracts:
- 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Project Hail Mary — 89¢ Kalshi $327 (weight 9%)
- 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Digger — 61¢ Kalshi $29 (weight 1%)
- 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: The Debut — 58¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Obsession — 46¢ Kalshi $607 (weight 16%)
- 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Behemoth — 41¢ Kalshi $780 (weight 21%)
- 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Elsinore — 39¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: The Invite — 37¢ Kalshi $460 (weight 12%)
- 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Ink — 36¢ Kalshi $390 (weight 10%)
- ... and 11 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T05:20:51.689Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "89% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarnompic
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2027%20Best%20Picture%20Oscar%20nominations
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev