90% — 2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations
Leader: Toy Story 5 at 90% · Kalshi 90% · 7 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:32 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The market currently prices 'Hoppers' at 81% likelihood to receive a 2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nomination. This reflects bets aggregated across six competing contracts on Kalshi, where Hoppers holds a commanding lead over the second-place option at 77%. The probability level suggests traders view this film as a strong contender for nomination based on current information. The Oscars ceremony and nomination announcement scheduled for early 2027 will definitively resolve this outcome. Key uncertainties include the film's actual release date and quality reception, competition from other animated releases throughout 2026-2027, and evolving Academy voting patterns. Trading volume on the Hoppers contract remains light at $1 over 24 hours, indicating limited recent conviction changes despite the high price point.

Key factors:
- Film's theatrical release date and audience reception metrics determine baseline eligibility and competitive positioning
- Number and quality of competing animated features released in the 2026-2027 eligibility window directly affects nomination likelihood
- Academy's recent voting trends show animation category typically receives 5-10 nominations, affecting threshold for inclusion
- Current 81% price implies material probability (~19%) of non-nomination despite market leader status, reflecting genuine uncertainty
- Thin 24-hour trading volume ($1) suggests price may not reflect recent market consensus if significant new information emerged

Contracts:
- 2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Toy Story 5 — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- 2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Wildwood — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- 2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Hoppers — 74¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- 2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Tangles — 56¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- 2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom — 45¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- 2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Forgotten Island — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- 2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Ray Gunn — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:48.898Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarnomsbanimatedf
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2027%20Best%20Animated%20Feature%20Film%20Oscar%20nominations
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev