80% — 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations Leader: The Odyssey at 80% · Kalshi 80% · 7 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-21 03:40:00 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This represents the likelihood that 'The Odyssey' will receive a nomination for Best Original Score at the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. The high 94-cent pricing reflects strong early confidence in this film's musical composition earning Academy recognition. The main drivers are the film's critical reception upon wider release, the composer's track record and industry standing, and how the score compares to competing films expected to be in contention. The Oscar nomination voting window—typically held in early 2027—will be the key resolution event, though pre-release screenings and film festival showings over the next months will significantly influence industry perception of the score's quality and its competitive position relative to other nominees. Key factors: - 'The Odyssey' score has generated sufficient early critical or festival buzz to command a 94-cent probability, suggesting backing from informed market participants - The runner-up contract 'Behemoth!' trades at 72 cents, indicating substantial uncertainty about whether 'The Odyssey' will be the nominated film from this selection - Zero 24-hour trading volume on most contracts suggests these prices may reflect stale information rather than recent market repricing - Oscar original score nominations are determined by a voting body with established preferences; the composer's prior nominations and wins, if any, are a measurable factor - The selection of five specific films in this market implies external expectation of competition among these titles; the presence of alternative 48-61 cent contracts indicates material probability mass on other outcomes Contracts: - 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations?: The Odyssey — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations?: Behemoth! — 49¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations?: The Black Ball — 41¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations?: Dune: Part Three — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations?: Project Hail Mary — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations?: Disclosure Day — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations?: The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T02:20:49.931Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "80% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarnomscore Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2027%20Best%20Music%20(Original%20Score)%20Oscar%20nominations Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev