79% — 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations
Leader: The Odyssey at 79% · Kalshi 79% · 12 contracts · $362 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:37 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 85% probability reflects market confidence that at least one specific score will receive a Best Original Score Oscar nomination at the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. This elevated level suggests the nominated film(s) have strong industry momentum and critical recognition heading into awards season. The probability would likely shift based on critical reception of competing scores between now and Oscar voting, as well as how scores perform in preliminary awards like the Golden Globes and BAFTA. The Academy's nomination announcement, scheduled for January 2027, represents the key resolution point. Until then, market participants are weighing festival circuit performance, industry screeners, and emerging consensus about which composers merit recognition this year.

Key factors:
- At least one specified score receives an Oscar nomination when the Academy announces nominees in January 2027
- Kalshi contracts show significant volume concentration in Best Actor outcomes (not music scores), suggesting limited liquidity and potentially less efficient pricing in score-specific markets
- The 85% leader price indicates asymmetric conviction compared to the 76% runner-up, suggesting meaningful differentiation between competing score outcomes
- Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and other winter 2026-2027 award ceremonies will establish momentum for which scores resonate with voters
- The gap between 85% and lower-priced alternatives suggests market participants have identified specific score(s) as substantially more likely than others, rather than uniform probability distribution across outcomes

Contracts:
- 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations?: The Odyssey — 79¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 7%)
- 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations?: Disclosure Day — 74¢ Kalshi $338 (weight 93%)
- 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations?: The Black Ball — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations?: Dune: Part Three — 50¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations?: Project Hail Mary — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations?: The Adventures of Cliff Booth — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations?: Wild Horse Nine — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations?: The Social Reckoning — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 4 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.206Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "79% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarnomscore
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2027%20Best%20Music%20(Original%20Score)%20Oscar%20nominations
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev