82% — 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations
Leader: Wild Horse Nine at 82% · Kalshi 82% · 10 contracts · $193 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-20 18:32:49 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that a particular screenplay will receive an Oscar nomination in the Best Original Screenplay category at the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. The current 75% level suggests high confidence among traders, though the runner-up contract at 69% indicates meaningful uncertainty about which specific film will ultimately be nominated. Market pricing is driven by screenwriting recognition across festival circuits, critical reception, and patterns from similar films in recent years. The primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the official Oscar nominations announcement, typically held in late January. Between now and then, film festival performances, industry guild nominations (Writers Guild, BAFTAs), and trade publication predictions will likely shift probabilities as the voting period approaches. Current trading activity on the leading contract ($16 in 24-hour volume) suggests modest but active interest.

Key factors:
- The leading contract (75¢) substantially outprices the runner-up (69¢), indicating market consensus around one screenplay but with 6 percentage points of disagreement still present
- Top two contracts account for most probability mass; remaining three combined trade below 30¢, suggesting traders view only two screenplays as serious contenders
- 24-hour volume concentration ($16 on leader, $13 on runner-up versus near-zero on others) shows trading activity validates the top-two hierarchy
- Oscar nomination announcements occur in late January 2027, establishing a hard resolution date roughly 4-5 months from current market snapshot
- Screenplay eligibility for nomination depends on specific film release dates, eligibility windows, and Academy rules that may disqualify or add candidates between now and voting

Contracts:
- 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?: Wild Horse Nine — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?: Obsession — 50¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?: Club Kid — 47¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?: The Debut — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?: Elsinore — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?: The Drama — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?: Josephine — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?: Fjord — 5¢ Kalshi $193 (weight 100%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-20T17:20:52.166Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "82% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarnomsplay
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2027%20Best%20Original%20Screenplay%20Oscar%20nominations
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev