77% — 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations
Leader: Wild Horse Nine at 77% · Kalshi 77% · 13 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 06:45:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market reflects the likelihood that a particular screenplay will receive an Original Screenplay nomination for the 2027 Academy Awards (the Oscars held in March 2027). The current 56% probability indicates traders view this outcome as somewhat more likely than not, though uncertainty remains. The screenplay's chances depend primarily on its critical reception, festival performance, and industry buzz as we approach the fall awards season. Major film festivals in 2026—particularly Venice, Telluride, and Toronto—serve as key signals of which films will generate the momentum needed for Oscar consideration. The Golden Globe nominations (typically announced in December 2026) often correlate with Academy voters' preferences and would represent a critical near-term catalyst for clarifying whether this screenplay maintains its current standing or faces competitive pressure from other original screenplays entering the season.

Key factors:
- Critical scores and reviews from major outlets upon release will influence perceived screenplay quality and Oscar viability
- Festival circuit performance and awards at Venice, Telluride, Toronto, or other major venues historically correlate with subsequent Oscar nominations
- Golden Globe nominations in December 2026 typically signal Academy momentum and provide early validation of screenplay strength relative to competitors
- Production and release timing relative to the Academy's eligibility window (must be theatrically released between specific dates) affects candidacy
- Competitive landscape—the number and quality of other original screenplays released during the eligibility period determines relative strength of this entry

Contracts:
- 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?: Wild Horse Nine — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?: Digger — 69¢ Kalshi $283 (weight 19%)
- 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?: Fjord — 68¢ Kalshi $67 (weight 5%)
- 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?: Obsession — 56¢ Kalshi $382 (weight 26%)
- 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?: Club Kid — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?: The Drama — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?: Fatherland — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?: Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:52.022Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "77% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarnomsplay
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2027%20Best%20Original%20Screenplay%20Oscar%20nominations
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev