21% — Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the Oscars
Kalshi 21% · 4 contracts · $12K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-26 15:05:41 UTC

Why this matters:
The Odyssey is currently assigned a 15% probability of winning Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, reflecting market expectations that it has roughly a 1-in-7 chance compared to other competing films. This probability is based on aggregated trading across Kalshi contracts, where The Odyssey trades at 47 cents—significantly higher than other tracked candidates like Dune: Part Three at 17 cents. The main drivers of this level are The Odyssey's perceived critical reception and awards-season momentum relative to competing films. Key uncertainty will resolve through upcoming film festivals (Venice, Toronto, Telluride in fall 2026) where The Odyssey and competitors will receive critical evaluation, followed by Golden Globe and BAFTA results in early 2027, which historically correlate with Oscar outcomes. The 99th Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for March 2, 2027, at which point the actual winner will be determined.

Key factors:
- The Odyssey's current 47-cent contract price is roughly 3x higher than Dune: Part Three (17 cents) and 8x higher than other major tracked candidates, indicating relative market confidence
- Trading volume on The Odyssey contract ($22,665 in 24h volume) dwarfs competing films, suggesting concentrated belief among traders
- The outcome depends on The Odyssey's performance at Venice Film Festival (August 28-September 7, 2026) and subsequent fall festivals, which drive critical consensus
- Historical correlation between fall festival awards (Venice, Toronto) and eventual Oscar outcomes will materially influence contract prices through winter 2026
- The final resolution occurs at the 99th Academy Awards on March 2, 2027, with no intermediate betting catalysts after early 2027 guild award results

Contracts:
- Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the Oscars?: The Odyssey — 49¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 50%)
- Will Dune: Part Three win Best Picture at the Oscars?: Dune: Part Three — 9¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 38%)
- Will Wild Horse Nine win Best Picture at the Oscars?: Wild Horse Nine — 3¢ Kalshi $950 (weight 8%)
- Will The Black Ball win Best Picture at the Oscars?: The Black Ball — 24¢ Kalshi $630 (weight 5%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-26T14:20:49.840Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarpic
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20The%20Odyssey%20win%20Best%20Picture%20at%20the%20Oscars
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev