11% — Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the Oscars
Kalshi 11% · 6 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-27 07:47:54 UTC

Why this matters:
The Odyssey has a 9% implied probability of winning Best Picture at the 2029 Academy Awards, meaning prediction markets assign roughly a 1-in-11 chance the film will claim cinema's highest honor. This low probability reflects either skepticism about the film's commercial or critical performance, or confidence in competing titles. The metric would shift based on box office returns, critical reception upon release, guild award nominations (Golden Globes, SAG, BAFTA, Critics' Choice), and industry momentum leading into the ceremony. The Academy Awards voting and ceremony, scheduled for early 2029, represents the definitive resolution point for this outcome. Market pricing suggests traders view The Social Reckoning and Dune: Part Three as stronger contenders at present, though probabilities this far from resolution remain highly speculative and subject to substantial revision as films release and accumulate accolades.

Key factors:
- Box office performance and audience reception upon the film's theatrical release will significantly influence awards momentum and industry perception
- Critical reviews and Rotten Tomatoes/Metacritic scores typically correlate with Academy voting patterns and influence nomination chances
- Wins or nominations from major precursor awards (Golden Globes, SAG Awards, BAFTA, Critics' Choice) would substantially increase The Odyssey's odds if achieved
- Competition from other contenders like The Social Reckoning, Dune: Part Three, and Digger may consolidate industry support away from The Odyssey if those films gain early traction
- The film's genre, runtime, and thematic content relative to recent Best Picture winners should factor into assessments of Academy voter alignment

Contracts:
- Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the Oscars?: The Odyssey — 30¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 55%)
- Will Dune: Part Three win Best Picture at the Oscars?: Dune: Part Three — 13¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 22%)
- Will Project Hail Mary win Best Picture at the Oscars?: Project Hail Mary — 6¢ Kalshi $508 (weight 11%)
- Will Digger win Best Picture at the Oscars?: Digger — 6¢ Kalshi $393 (weight 8%)
- Will Wild Horse Nine win Best Picture at the Oscars?: Wild Horse Nine — 7¢ Kalshi $132 (weight 3%)
- Will The Black Ball win Best Picture at the Oscars?: The Black Ball — 4¢ Kalshi $40 (weight 1%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-27T07:20:50.617Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarpic
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20The%20Odyssey%20win%20Best%20Picture%20at%20the%20Oscars
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev