5% — Will John Goodman win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars Kalshi 5% · 14 contracts · $437 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 03:47:27 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the likelihood that John Goodman will win the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor at the next Oscars ceremony. At 5%, it places him among the longer-shot candidates in a competitive category. The current low probability likely reflects that Goodman has limited recent high-profile film releases in awards-eligible genres, and the Supporting Actor field typically features performers with more prominent roles in major studio productions or prestige projects. The probability will shift based on films released during the eligibility window and their performance at earlier award ceremonies (Golden Globes, BAFTAs, Screen Actors Guild Awards), which typically serve as indicators of Academy voting patterns. The final resolution occurs at the Oscars ceremony in early 2027, after voting closes in late February. Key factors: - Goodman's recent filmography and whether any upcoming releases position him as a supporting actor contender in high-profile productions - The performance of other competing actors and films at earlier award ceremonies like the Golden Globes and SAG Awards - Number and quality of films released during the Academy eligibility window that feature Goodman in supporting roles - Historical voting patterns in the Supporting Actor category and how Goodman's typical casting choices compare to recent winners - Media and industry commentary on the strength of the overall 2026-2027 supporting actor field Contracts: - Will Robert Pattinson win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars?: Robert Pattinson — 6¢ Kalshi $308 (weight 70%) - Will Paul Giamatti win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars?: Paul Giamatti — 5¢ Kalshi $105 (weight 24%) - Will Jeremy Strong win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars?: Jeremy Strong — 21¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 6%) - Will Channing Tatum win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars?: Channing Tatum — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Charles Melton win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars?: Charles Melton — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Colman Domingo win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars?: Colman Domingo — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott) win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars?: Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott) — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jesse Plemons win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars?: Jesse Plemons — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T03:20:48.925Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarsupacto Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20John%20Goodman%20win%20Best%20Supporting%20Actor%20at%20the%20Oscars Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev