7% — Will Margaret Qualley win Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars Kalshi 7% · 10 contracts · $18 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 03:47:27 UTC Why this matters: This probability represents the market's assessment that Margaret Qualley will win the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress at the 2027 Oscars ceremony. At 5%, traders view her as a long-shot candidate rather than a frontrunner. The probability reflects limited recognition for her work compared to peers like Gemma Chan (10%) and Sandra Hüller (10%), suggesting her recent film roles haven't generated the same awards momentum. Qualley's chances would increase with major festival recognition (Venice, BAFTA, Golden Globe nominations) or if her upcoming projects receive critical acclaim. The key uncertainty will resolve through the standard Oscar nomination and voting process, with the nomination announcement in January 2027 serving as the critical juncture that either validates her candidacy or confirms her outsider status relative to the broader field of competing actresses. Key factors: - Margaret Qualley's current 5% probability is half that of top competitors Gemma Chan and Sandra Hüller, indicating market consensus views her as less likely to receive an Oscar nomination - Trading volume on Qualley contracts ($16 in 24h volume) is significantly lower than leading candidates like Gemma Chan ($1,018), suggesting limited trader conviction or interest in her chances - Oscar nominations in January 2027 will be the primary catalyst that either elevates or confirms her long-shot status, as industry voting patterns strongly correlate with earlier festival and guild awards - Qualley's path to nomination depends on her 2026 film releases receiving critical acclaim and translating into recognition from BAFTA, Golden Globes, and Screen Actors Guild award voters - The Best Supporting Actress category is highly competitive with numerous viable candidates at similar or higher probabilities, reducing any single candidate's statistical likelihood Contracts: - Will Inde Navarrette win Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars?: Inde Navarrette — 13¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 100%) - Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars?: Anne Hathaway — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Danielle Deadwyler win Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars?: Danielle Deadwyler — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Gemma Chan win Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars?: Gemma Chan — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Margaret Qualley win Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars?: Margaret Qualley — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Mariana di Girolamo win Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars?: Mariana di Girolamo — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Parker Posey win Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars?: Parker Posey — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Penélope Cruz win Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars?: Penélope Cruz — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T03:20:49.155Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/oscarsupactr Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Margaret%20Qualley%20win%20Best%20Supporting%20Actress%20at%20the%20Oscars Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev