29% — Will AfD win the 2026 Osnabrück mayoral election
Kalshi 29% · 3 contracts · $421 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 04:41:10 UTC

Why this matters:
The AfD's 24% probability reflects market expectations for their performance in Osnabrück's 2026 mayoral election. This contrasts sharply with the CDU at 55% and SPD at 32%, suggesting the market views the AfD as a significant but not dominant contender. The AfD's position reflects broader German political dynamics, including their recent electoral gains in regional races, but faces headwinds from traditional mainstream-party dominance in mayoral contests and likely opposition coalitions. The election itself will serve as the definitive outcome moment, though candidate announcements, campaign positioning, and any local issues specific to Osnabrück could shift probabilities beforehand. Current trading volume is relatively modest, suggesting limited market participation on this specific race.

Key factors:
- CDU contract trades at 55¢ (55% implied probability), nearly 2.3x the AfD's 3¢, indicating market consensus that mainstream candidates remain favored in mayoral contests
- SPD and Greens combined represent 35% probability, suggesting anti-AfD coalition possibilities that could further fragment AfD vote share
- AfD's 24% probability reflects party's national polling strength but faces structural disadvantage in mayoral elections where local governance experience typically outweighs party affiliation
- Trading volume on AfD contract ($17 24h vol) exceeds all other contracts combined, indicating concentrated speculative interest despite low absolute probability
- No announced candidate from AfD has been reported in available information, creating uncertainty about campaign viability and local appeal in Osnabrück

Contracts:
- Will SPD win the 2026 Osnabrück mayoral election?: SPD — 27¢ Kalshi $300 (weight 71%)
- Will CDU win the 2026 Osnabrück mayoral election?: CDU — 56¢ Kalshi $121 (weight 29%)
- Will Greens win the 2026 Osnabrück mayoral election?: Greens — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T04:20:48.997Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "29% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/osnabruckmayor
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20AfD%20win%20the%202026%20Osnabr%C3%BCck%20mayoral%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev