22% — Will Neil Saravanamuttoo win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election
Kalshi 22% · 4 contracts · $117 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 07:34:29 UTC

Why this matters:
Neil Saravanamuttoo's 22% probability reflects prediction market expectations for his performance in the 2026 Ottawa mayoral race. This places him as a distant third-place candidate behind incumbent Mark Sutcliffe (52%) and city councillor Jeff Leiper (17%), with low trading volume suggesting limited market confidence in either direction. The probability reflects Saravanamuttoo's current name recognition, campaign infrastructure, and fundraising position relative to frontrunners. Key uncertainties include whether Sutcliffe faces unexpected scandals or dissatisfaction that could fragment the incumbent vote, or whether Saravanamuttoo can build sufficient campaign momentum and media presence to establish himself as a credible alternative. The race resolution date in October 2026 will depend heavily on campaign performance between now and election day, voter turnout patterns, and any major local issues that emerge.

Key factors:
- Sutcliffe holds a 30-percentage-point lead, indicating markets view him as the dominant candidate with structural advantages as incumbent
- Saravanamuttoo's 22% probability is roughly double Leiper's 17%, suggesting markets differentiate between second-tier candidates based on available information
- Trading volume of $400 in 24 hours on the Saravanamuttoo contract is relatively modest, indicating limited speculative interest or uncertainty among sophisticated traders
- The combined probability of non-Sutcliffe candidates (48%) suggests reasonable market uncertainty about whether the incumbent can win outright
- Campaign activity, endorsements, and media coverage between July 2026 and the October election will likely shift these probabilities significantly

Contracts:
- Will Jeff Leiper win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?: Jeff Leiper — 13¢ Kalshi $117 (weight 100%)
- Will Alex Lawson win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?: Alex Lawson — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?: Mark Sutcliffe — 56¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Neil Saravanamuttoo win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?: Neil Saravanamuttoo — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T07:20:51.703Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ottawamayor
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Neil%20Saravanamuttoo%20win%20the%202026%20Ottawa%20mayoral%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev