85% — Will Pennsylvania have at least 190 data centers listed in 2026
Leader: At least 180 at 85% · Kalshi 85% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 05:31:26 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This predicts whether Pennsylvania will have at least 190 data centers registered or operational by year-end 2026. The 92% probability on the 180+ threshold and 83% on the 190+ threshold suggests traders expect strong growth in the state's data center capacity. The gap between these probabilities indicates modest uncertainty about reaching exactly 190 rather than whether significant expansion occurs. Growth drivers include regional demand for cloud infrastructure, favorable electricity pricing, and existing facility expansions; headwinds include construction timelines, permit delays, and shifting location preferences. Resolution depends on official counts from industry databases and state business records, likely finalized in early 2027.

Key factors:
- Current baseline: Pennsylvania's approximate 2024-2025 data center count and announced projects in active development or pre-construction phases
- Construction pipeline: Number of facilities with completed permitting, under construction, or with signed leases targeting 2026 completion
- Regional competition: Capacity growth in neighboring states (New York, Virginia) affecting investment flows and builder decisions
- Electricity and grid availability: Constraints or expansions in supply that directly enable or delay facility deployment
- Definitional variance: Whether count includes co-location centers, edge nodes, and backup facilities—different sources may report different totals

Contracts:
- Will Pennsylvania have at least 180 data centers listed in 2026?: At least 180 — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will Pennsylvania have at least 185 data centers listed in 2026?: At least 185 — 78¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will Pennsylvania have at least 190 data centers listed in 2026?: At least 190 — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will Pennsylvania have at least 195 data centers listed in 2026?: At least 195 — 59¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will Pennsylvania have at least 200 data centers listed in 2026?: At least 200 — 45¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will Pennsylvania have at least 205 data centers listed in 2026?: At least 205 — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T05:20:51.233Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "85% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/padatacenters
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Pennsylvania%20have%20at%20least%20190%20data%20centers%20listed%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev